NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Bishop would have a good shot of winning the primary if he ran given his profile. Earlier this year I would've said he couldn't win statewide given his strong association with HB2, but given Cooper's comparatively weak re-election margin and lack of coattails, as well as the expected dynamics of a Biden midterm in a state not carried by the Democratic presidential ticket, I don't think he'd put the seat at much of a risk. As his own election to the House demonstrated so well (and it still baffles me that McCready's performance wasn't a gigantic red flag for the party everywhere), suburban revulsion just isn't enough for the Dems to make their way across the line in NC, and there's still further to fall in the regions that have been falling, especially since Dems are so disinterested in seemingly every other demographic in existence nowadays, and in NC specifically seem to have no qualms with letting the Inner Banks and Sandhills crumble.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Does Josh Stein have any interest in this race? I assume not, since he didn't run in 2020. He's probably the strongest non-Cooper candidate though.

By most accounts, he's set on becoming Cooper's successor in the governor's mansion. Whether what remains of the state's downballot quirks will persist until then appears up in the air this far out.

[If my soul was made of stone]

NC was redder in 2014

[gestures wildly at the GOP gaining row offices in 2016, NC being widely expected to at least swing D in the 2016 Presidential, row office elections swinging R in 2020...)

[If my soul was made of stone]

Sophisticated Model gives Budd the edge in NC
https://twitter.com/woodchuckofjoy/status/1580960496257073159

what world is this guy living in where the sandhills, the black belt, jacksonville/beaufort, and the outer banks are all one region

[If my soul was made of stone]

Sophisticated Model gives Budd the edge in NC
https://twitter.com/woodchuckofjoy/status/1580960496257073159

what world is this guy living in where the sandhills, the black belt, jacksonville/beaufort, and the outer banks are all one region

I am calling for a complete shutdown of Election Twitter bros making 'models' of things they barely understand until we figure out what the hell is going on.

(that said, 51/46 doesn't feel like a totally implausible topline result for this particular race)

what decades of neoliberal stemlord bureaucrats gutting the social sciences in education does to a mf