izixs
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,279
Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51
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« on: November 25, 2011, 08:07:58 PM » |
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I'd suspect that the Democratic base will be less a region than a type of community. Its already moving in that direction with most urban centers leaning Democratic as is. I'd expect some differentiation at some point as these becomes the dominate locations of American politics and both parties adjust to reflect this. So having a grouping of states holding towards one party as they currently do will only happen if those states lack major urban centers (like in much of the great plains) in which case the states will probably keep holding in their current patterns until such time as they grow major urban centers.
So in a city dominate US, it comes down to if Republicans can keep some major urban centers under their influence despite trends towards higher density communities drifting dem. To do so will probably require a radical shift in the basic premiss of the Republican party. For the Dems, they pretty much are hitting the right notes presently and their messages resonate well with diverse communities (which tend to come with urbanization).
Already Democrats are dominating a number of states with large portions of the population in major cities (NY, IL, CA, WA, ect). So where are the major urban centers going to be popping up in the next 50 years? If global warming doesn't halt the growth in the south west and Texas, these areas will shift Dem on population concentration alone. The coasts with the exception of AK, AL, MS, and LA will probably keep moving dem as well. I exclude those four because AK is unlikely to develop major urban centers any time soon, AL and MS have limited scope as far as coastal centric development and will probably have state governments that become anti-growth once they see SC getting more liberal over the decades, and similarly with LA but perhaps with an active anti-urbanization push to limit the growth of New Orleans to prevent state wide competitiveness. At best these four states will be swing territory in 50 years.
So that leaves the interior. Colorado is already becoming urban dominated as is Illinois. MI, PA, and OH are borderline at present and depending on how economics works out could drift either way. WV will probably stay very Republican for a good long while as I don't see this urban trend going strong here until greater DC starts to really bleed into the eastern corner of the state in any substantial fashion. KY, TN, and AR will probably stay lean or likely Republican unless major changes happen in the dynamics of the state's growth. The upper midwest will probably tilt right as the young people move to more interesting areas, suppressing urbanization. Same with most the great plains unless latino growth explodes here for some reason. Utah will maybe moderate a bit but it would be Salt Lake City vs everyone else. Wyoming, Idaho, and probably Montana will keep right leaning, though Montana might remain the most even of the group.
Of course if Republicans can figure out how to appeal to all or some urban populations, then things get more complicated. The problems of cities on the east coast will probably be a little different then the problems on the west coast or the gulf coast.
But yeah, lots can happen in 50 years.
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