Could Obama Win OH while losing PA?

[izixs]

In the most basic sense, Ohio is sort of a split between a voter universe similar to Indiana and a voter universe similar to Pennsylvania (which itself is a mixture). Unless there are major demographic or structural changes to how politics works in Ohio, for Obama to win Ohio and loose Pennsylvania would imply Obama is doing very well in the parts of the state like Indiana and thus probably doing very well in Indiana. If he's doing well in Indiana this suggests he's doing well with other places like Indiana (aka, farm heavy regions of the country that sometimes vote dem like Iowa and Missouri or even the Dakotas) and probably doesn't need Pennsylvania to win.

For Obama to loose in this situation, as mentioned before, would require major changes in Ohio. If the changes are demographic it would probably mean some sort of mass migration into or out of Ohio. For migration into Ohio the folks would have to be coming for a reason. Perhaps everyone in Detroit finally gives up on the city and moves to Ohio in hopes for a better life. Or some sort of super coal disaster strikes Pittsburgh and they all move to Dayton. These options are very unlikely. For a migration out of Ohio that would tip things to Obama it would mean the most conservative regions of the state depopulate. These are mostly rural or ex/suburb areas. A localized farm crisis might work on the rural regions (very unlikely) but a new housing bust might force people out of ex/suburb areas, but would it be enough to get them to leave the state? Unlikely.

So this leaves a change in the dynamics of Ohio politics that at the same time doesn't come to PA. The nearest thing to that would probably be the anti-union stuff the governor and his cronies have been pushing. But is not this issue observed across the boarder and serve as a warning to what Republicans are really about in union heavy Penn?