Like the rest of the country, the party went too far right and the GOP lost suburbia. Suburban voters used to carry states like NJ, IL, PA, NH, and even OR/WA and CA.
Once the suburban vote was lost, it was all over for the GOP in NY.
The GOP used to own Long Island, but not anymore. The typical democratic win was around 52-47% every year, but since 1992, forget about it.
You're right, Long Island used to be a Republican bastion. Reagan carried New York twice, and Bush Sr. made the state close, because counties like Westchester, Nassau, Richmond, and Suffolk voted Republican with such large margins. Since the Bush Jr. years, the Republicans have lost tremendous ground in the state and in those areas in particular, but if last November was an indicator, I do think the tide will continue to turn in the Republicans' favor this fall. They have a shot a picking up Congressional seats, and retaking the state senate. They just need to recruit a solid statewide ticket for all those political races up in November.
LOL, A low turnout off year election doesn't mean things will automatically be the same the following year. Though it looks like they will be rescinded the anger at the GOP pay raise vote is not a good way to start off your hold in the majority. Not to mention you think the GOP will pick up NY-04 of all seats, that right there should disqualify you from making any comments on the GOP's chances in NY.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_4th_congressional_district
It is possible for her to lose her seat so stop making it seem as though it is a crazy idea. It's not as if I am saying Ackerman or Maloney's seat can be picked up.
LOLOLOLOL I live in NY-04. You're not beating Carolyn McCarthy. Like you're actually not going to do be able to defeat her. She's popular among constituents, she has name recognition really throughout the state, and she won't be defeated by a lunatic Republican.