2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[European Lefty]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

[European Lefty]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

A lot of cops did vote for Trump, I know this as a personal fact.

However, it's completely false to suggest that Democrats are going after police.

Although it's something that was suggested and looks like it might have had some effect

[European Lefty]

But...but moderate heroes!

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1323855987338563585
Let this be the death of third-way DLC politics.

LOL You think a further left candidate would have done better?

Probably, although I'm not sure by how much. Their ideas are clearly more popular at the ballot box. If the Republican campaign had been baited into arguing more on the issues instead of decency porn because they mistakenly thought they were winning, the contours of the campaign might have been different. Just maybe, the groups which voted disproportionately for progressive candidates in primaries wouldn't be abandoning Democrats faster than anyone else.

Eastmann got obliterated in NE-2, which Biden carried comfortably.

Indeed. Eastman was a special case, having been done over by the previous Democratic Congressman.

The more Democrats run away from their own platform under the pretext of electability, the less they should expect anyone to believe in it.

I strongly suspect that a large part of the problem is how many progressive democrats insist on - inaccurately - describing themselves as socialists

[European Lefty]

Any hope for Gary Peters?

Just taken a 1,020 vote lead according to CNN

[European Lefty]

Can someone point me to the MI-SEN result showing Peters ahead? I'm still seeing James ahead by like ~7k (with Antrim still to fix its' error).

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/senate
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-senate.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[European Lefty]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

Part of me wonders if black voters breaking heavily for Biden in the primary only for certain people to loudly disparage those who voted for him as supporting a racist, voting against their own interests etc. might have had some effect

[European Lefty]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Did the "socialism" hype hurt senate Democrats more than Biden? I imagine people would be more inclined to associate the party as a whole than a single moderate with "evil socialism". At which point, people vote Biden because they like him/to remove Trump but vote R in the senate race to avoid AOC/Bernie/unnamed communists from taking control behind the scenes

[European Lefty]

I think what doomers in this thread need to realize is that all of these Trump tactics are not about winning at this point, the race is over, Trump has lost and that won't change.  This is merely a PR stunt to make his supporters feel like the race was stolen despite the fact that the margins in some of these states like PA probably won't be all that close when all is said and done.  Reason: he is staring at a lot of legal problems in New York and wants to create civil unrest so prosecutors don't touch him.

That is so wrong. If Trump takes AZ and GA , PA will be litigated heavily.

It might be litigated but that doesn't mean it won't still go to Biden

[European Lefty]

Al Gross declaring victory is clearly the most insane thing said today.

Is there any rhyme or reason to this? Is he just being optimistic or annoying?

He was asked why he hadn't conceded with only about half counted and basically said "because I can still win"

[European Lefty]

Trump will still win. He has upper hand if he wins AZ

No he doesn't. That's obvious nonsense. He's getting obliterated in PA and is now the underdog in GA

[European Lefty]

It's 4 am here. Please, Pennsylvania. Be done with this. I want my suffering to end.

3am here. I wanna got to bed!

[European Lefty]

Trump will still win. He has upper hand if he wins AZ

No he doesn't. That's obvious nonsense. He's getting obliterated in PA and is now the underdog in GA

legal challenges.

On what grounds exactly? Remember, "I don't like the result" is not a legal argument

[European Lefty]

Big legal fight coming folks. AZ is likely to go to Trump.

You're so desperate your clinging to the hope of one state that doesn't get your candidate close to the finish line?

[European Lefty]

Pennsylvania should just be called already. Biden would be at 273, and everyone can get back to doing things with their lives. the last three days, i have accomplished absolutely nothing because I keep checking on the results with confusion and a bit of anxiety.

Yeah, does Trump even have a path to victory in PA at this point?

Divine intervention?

[European Lefty]

Big legal fight coming folks. AZ is likely to go to Trump.

Trump has got a second term. His supporters should be thanking Amy Coney Barrett, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh.

I agree he will win in SCOTUS.

I think that the Supreme Court is going to throw out all the mail in ballots that were cast due to “national security” and “law and order” reasons if I had to guess.

I agree. Trump wins AZ then GA, PA are challenged.

It is possible that Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire are given to Donald Trump after the Supreme Court intervenes as well.

That's it? I think the SC will unanimously award the entire Milky Way Galaxy to Trump enabling him to win with 62 million electoral votes to Biden's zero.

Why stop at one galaxy? I can see them giving him at least Andromeda as well

[European Lefty]

How hilarious would it be if it DOES end up as a recount before the Supreme Court, only for them to rule in Biden’s favor citing Bush v. Gore as precedent?

After 20 years, revenge would finally be achieved.

Unfortunately I think betrayal by "their" SC judges would really would inspire Trump fans to violence

[European Lefty]

https://twitter.com/perez4az/status/1324559557918556161

What do they want?  To stop the vote count in Arizona?   Do they understand what that means?

No

[European Lefty]

Trump will win AZ. Trump has the momentum folks

Please shut up

[European Lefty]

Trumps path (he doesn't have one) is GA --> AZ --> WI.  All will be in recount territory.  Quit focusing on MI and PA, your losing bigly there.

Is there any chance that a recount would actually change result though?

[European Lefty]

Trump will win imo. Biden's path is narrowing a lot . PA will be big legal battle. Maybe GA too.

SHUT UP YOU HACK

It's like a bot without the imagination or vocabulary

[European Lefty]

Just woke up. About to go to work. Can anybody give the quick rundown?

Biden about to win, count painfully slow, Trump voters on suicide watch

[European Lefty]

after all the Election Day bed wetting it looks like Biden will win 4 of the 6 core battlegrounds (MI, PA, WI, AZ) and 2 pickups (GA, NE-2) and he wins the contested Hillary states easily (ME, NH, MN... probably NV).

If those were called earlier than Florida and Texas nobody would have cared about the polls being off.

It is astonishing how the order in which the exact same votes for the exact same candidates have been counted has totally changed how this election is being viewed.

If PA, NV, GA and AZ had all done mail-in first, this would be all but over and people would be talking about a 300+ EV triumph.

Instead.....

[European Lefty]

Not going to lie, as a non-American, following these results has changed my entire perception of time. Can we please just have something to put us all out of our misery?

[European Lefty]

Ivanka is the only Trump that should even think about running.  Trump Jr. would be terrible.

Do you think hoping the SC overturns an outcome is calling for a cout if there is evidence to the legitimacy of the election process? They literally are calling me a revolutionary or some BS.

SN, we lost this election (on the presidential level, at least).  There are convincing arguments about why it wasn't a disaster for the GOP, but sometimes the simple explanation is the true explanation, rather than some conspiracy theory.  I'm not saying that mass voter fraud is impossible, but it is improbable enough to require a very high level of proof, which we have not seen at all.  Plus, if there were systematic voter fraud, I don't think it would have allowed us to keep the Senate (most likely) and gain in the House.

Exactly. If Democrats have rigged the election they've done a very bad job of it

[European Lefty]

CNN showing Trump's lead in PA down to ~22.5k