NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[atheist4thecause]

I'm excited for the caucus results. I'm also excited to move on from Nevada. I get sick of hearing how important Nevada is because of the racist idea that people who have similar skin colors all vote alike. They don't. Race needs to stop being elevated above ideas, but the Postmodern Democrats struggle with that simple concept. Hopefully Klobuchar overperforms, but I'm not expecting it. We'll see.

[atheist4thecause]

ooh i’m excited this is where the winnowing begins

I really don't think winnowing will happen much. We're not far from Super Tuesday and the "weakest" candidates have their firewalls coming. Biden (if you consider him weak) is set to do fairly well in Nevada and is polling well in South Carolina. Klobuchar has Minnesota on Super Tuesday. Warren has Massachusetts on Super Tuesday. Maybe candidates like Gabbard drop out, but I'd be surprised if we saw this great winnowing of the field, especially given so much money has already been spent on Super Tuesday states.

[atheist4thecause]

Here's what CNN updates looked like for the 2016 Democratic caucus. Though the fractured nature of the race, early voting & the chances of Iowa-like chaos renders a lot of this moot. Still a fun look back at the last rodeo and perhaps provide some timed goalposts. I'd wager there being a great deal of messiness if the results are 90 minutes late from the time caucusing starts


Pacific time

 12:00     Caucus begins
 12:04     First entrance polls released (Race, Ideology, Union household)
 12:35     2nd set of entrance polls released (Head-to-head, first-time caucusgoers, qualities)
 12:57     First precinct numbers reporting
   1:17     13% precincts in_____9% of Clark County in, 40% of Washoe County in
   1:27     21% precincts in____13% of Clark County in, 45% of Washoe County in
   1:39     31% precincts in____21% of Clark County in, 54% of Washoe County in
   1:52     40% precincts in____36% of Clark County in, 74% of Washoe County in
   2:06     50% precincts in
   2:18     61% precincts in____53% of Clark County in, 85% of Washoe County in
   2:26     Hillary Clinton projected as winner (66% precincts in)
   2:38     70% precincts in
   3:31     80% precincts in
   7:33     90% precincts in

Quoting because this is such a good post it needs to be constantly bumped.

I know there are a lot of predictions that Nevada is going to be Iowa 2.0, but I think Nevada is going to be a lot better, even if there are some issues. Early voting should help the counting because those are all paper ballots that go through a scanner and drastically reduce the amount of votes come caucus day.

I was also thinking that because (according to polls) Biden, Warren and Sanders voters were the most set in stone, they end be the ones more likely to vote early. Is that how you guys see it? If this hypothesis is correct, we could see a lot of votes coming in early for those candidates and then drastically shift towards the other candidates when the day of vote results start coming in. Or do the results all come in and once and not do the early votes first?

Fox News was also reporting it was raining in Las Vegas early this morning. I'm not sure if rain will have an impact today or not, but it's worth noting that it's a bit of a rainy/gloomy day.

Here's a WSJ article I can't read because it's behind a pay wall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nevada-caucuses-2020-what-time-does-voting-start-and-when-to-expect-results-11582369200

Can anybody read that? It claims to tell when we can start expecting results. I was wondering if it would answer the question about whether early votes get released first.

Not too big of a surprise, but Nevada Democrats won't commit to same day results: https://apnews.com/ed71910f92a2d4936e9784d27ff4e113

[atheist4thecause]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

[atheist4thecause]

Something to remember is that counties with 2 delegates have a 25% viability rate, counties with 3 delegates have 1/6 (16.6666% rate), and counties with 4 delegates have a 15% viability rate. Source is Page 6: https://nvdems.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2020-NSDP-Delegate-Selection-REVISED-FINAL-190626.pdf

If you want to read all 121 pages to learn all the rules, feel free. lol

[atheist4thecause]

The entrance poll numbers are only for today's voters, right? Or do they include early voting?

[atheist4thecause]

When do we get early vote results?

[atheist4thecause]

I'm getting the feeling that Bernie Sanders is going to win handedly, but at the same time the delegate lead won't be crazy. There's just not that many delegates to get in Nevada and there are still many candidates to split with.

[atheist4thecause]

I'm muting SN2903 from the thread for several hours.

So now people get muted for hours for being against Bernie Sanders? This forum is showing it's bias. It's unfortunate that this bias is manifesting itself to oppress the voices of non-Bernie people on election day.

[atheist4thecause]

Trump won a landslide after today. Election is over.
America will never elect a socialist.

You are discounting the fact that Trump is incredibly toxic and that Sanders could shift to the center in a general election.

I love how you can't say anything anti-Bernie without getting muted, but it's open season on President Trump and Moderator Ye has no problem with it. Nice bias, Ye.

[atheist4thecause]

I'm muting SN2903 from the thread for several hours.

So now people get muted for hours for being against Bernie Sanders? This forum is showing it's bias. It's unfortunate that this bias is manifesting itself to oppress the voices of non-Bernie people on election day.

He's spamming the thread calling Sanders a communist. If he said it once and then laid out it would be fine, but he's derailing the thread.

Sanders literally has his history in Communism. You want to know history? Socialism is considered a means of a path to Communism. Also, the Socialist Movement back in the 1950's/1960's all came together during a convention and split up. The more extreme people went more towards a Communism and Socialism while the less extreme people went towards Progressivism. So history shows that there is a connection between Progressivism, Socialism, and Communism.

And btw, I saw what SN said. He was not derailing because he was talking specifically about the election results. He was assuming Sanders was going to win in a landslide today, which was going to propel him to the nomination, and that this would cause Trump to get elected in a landslide because the majority of America doesn't want Communism. That was his argument, and it is obviously directly tied to election results. You can't call that derailing.

[atheist4thecause]

It turns out I was right about early voters. Sanders, Biden, and Warren had the highest rating of people with their mind made up, and they had the 3 highest numbers of early voters.

[atheist4thecause]

I'm muting SN2903 from the thread for several hours.

So now people get muted for hours for being against Bernie Sanders? This forum is showing it's bias. It's unfortunate that this bias is manifesting itself to oppress the voices of non-Bernie people on election day.

Considering that many people who are against Bernie Sanders are still allowed to post in this thread, I beg to differ.

As long as they stay in their lane, right? Be against Bernie and fine, but complain that he's too extreme in his Socialism/Communism and that's not allowed. But you allow open season on Trump. Nice bias you got there.

[atheist4thecause]

If Sanders is that strong with Hispanics, he easily will win NV in a GE.

But probably lose a couple of big midwest states.

Being strong with Hispanics doesn't mean you have to be weaker with white people. The only people who are repulsed by the idea that Hispanics are voting for their guy are already Trump voters. In any case, it is possible that a strong showing among minorities could bring black turnout back up in the midwest and more than offset a drop in white support.

Like I said, Moderator Ye doesn't allow legitimate on-topic points about Sanders being extreme and his success in the voting today showing the Democratic Party is extreme, but Moderator Ye will allow open season on Trump in an off-topic and trolly manner based on the standards Moderator Ye has already set. This is not the first time this Israeli has said this. He has droned on-and-on in this manner.

[atheist4thecause]

Does Klobuchar drop out now?

Unlikely. She had a 7-figure ad buy from a PAC on the Super Tuesday states and Minnesota is one of the states, which she is currently leading in. I don't think it makes sense to drop out before Super Tuesday.

[atheist4thecause]

Buttigieg getting so personal with Klobuchar is really hurting him. He has alienating Klobuchar supporters, who are now refusing to help him get viable.

[atheist4thecause]

Buttigieg getting so personal with Klobuchar is really hurting him. He has alienating Klobuchar supporters, who are now refusing to help him get viable.

No, it’s the other way around:

Klob was first to attack him on the debate stage a few months ago ...

That is completely untrue. He has been attacking everybody in Washington since the beginning of his campaign. Klobuchar was playing nice and trying not to attack others. Buttigieg decided to play dirty politics and he's paying the consequences now.

[atheist4thecause]

Buttigieg getting so personal with Klobuchar is really hurting him. He has alienating Klobuchar supporters, who are now refusing to help him get viable.

No, it’s the other way around:

Klob was first to attack him on the debate stage a few months ago ...

They both did nothing but split the moderate vote from Biden and helped Bernie.

You mean that Biden split the moderate vote from Klobuchar. Klobuchar has more delegates than Biden.

[atheist4thecause]

If Sanders is that strong with Hispanics, he easily will win NV in a GE.

But probably lose a couple of big midwest states.

Being strong with Hispanics doesn't mean you have to be weaker with white people. The only people who are repulsed by the idea that Hispanics are voting for their guy are already Trump voters. In any case, it is possible that a strong showing among minorities could bring black turnout back up in the midwest and more than offset a drop in white support.

Like I said, Moderator Ye doesn't allow legitimate on-topic points about Sanders being extreme and his success in the voting today showing the Democratic Party is extreme, but Moderator Ye will allow open season on Trump in an off-topic and trolly manner based on the standards Moderator Ye has already set. This is not the first time this Israeli has said this. He has droned on-and-on in this manner. Sad!

Atheist, for your own benefit, I suggest you stop there.  You're going down a road that you don't want to take.  

--

Does Klobuchar drop out now?

I figure she stays on through Minnesota on 3/3. 

What road is that? What I said was perfect. You're making false assumptions that I find offensive and you need to stop.

[atheist4thecause]

https://twitter.com/makeroadactNV/status/1231326904214413312?s=20

The only way Bernie's Hispanic support will hurt him in the genersl is if insufferably conscientous white people keep refering to Sanders voters as "Latinx."

This from the guy who says not to race bait. Where are you now Penn_Quaker_Girl?

[atheist4thecause]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

The minimum wage vote.

It's almost like you're stuck in a giant, Morning in MAGA 1986 time capsule.

Can you chill out a bit please? You seem to be a good poster and I generally appreciate your contributions but I've had to hide some of your post for being off topic and the above comment, while not blatantly infractable in a vacuum, isn't the most helpeful either for the long term good of the thread.

Interesting the difference in punishment where SN was muted for hours during a major event on election night where you oppressed his voice and then choosing to give an obvious troll who constantly derails a warning. Why the double standard? Maybe it's because of the candidates they support.

[atheist4thecause]

3.500 votes in (first preference), with 1.5% of the precincts.

That still points to a 250.000 to 300.000 turnout, which would be pretty cool.

But the numbers probably won’t hold up as more precincts come in ...

A quarter of the precincts have 10 or fewer registered dems and about 350 have 0 registered dems (before election day) so definitely not.

Yeah, the flaw in his thinking is assuming precincts are equal sizes. They aren't.

[atheist4thecause]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

The minimum wage vote.

It's almost like you're stuck in a giant, Morning in MAGA 1986 time capsule.

Can you chill out a bit please? You seem to be a good poster and I generally appreciate your contributions but I've had to hide some of your post for being off topic and the above comment, while not blatantly infractable in a vacuum, isn't the most helpeful either for the long term good of the thread.

Interesting the difference in punishment where SN was muted for hours during a major event on election night where you oppressed his voice and then choosing to give an obvious troll who constantly derails a warning. Why the double standard? Maybe it's because of the candidates they support.

Sounds like someone didn't actually read SN's posts. Maybe it had something to do with the candidate he supported.

What candidate does he support? I literally don't even know. I just know it's not Bernie.

[atheist4thecause]

One thing I've said in the past is that health matters a lot more in the general election than the party nomination. We're seeing that right now. The health of Bernie Sanders isn't being considered even though he's 78 years-old and just had a heart attack. I'm sure President Trump would bring up his health, and the attack will be more effective in the general election.

[atheist4thecause]

One thing I've said in the past is that health matters a lot more in the general election than the party nomination. We're seeing that right now. The health of Bernie Sanders isn't being considered even though he's 78 years-old and just had a heart attack. I'm sure President Trump would bring up his health, and the attack will be more effective in the general election.

What the hell would Trump day? I’m morbidly obese, only eat fast food and believe exercise will kill you. Yeah, picture of health!

It would be more like, "Crazy Bernie doesn't have the energy to be President. He is slowing down and already had a heart attack. If he can't make it through election season, how can you trust him to have the energy to be your President? I've proven I have the energy to be President." Only, Trump will have a much better way of saying it because he's a persuasive communication expert.