Elizabeth Warren 2020 Megathread v2 (pg 35 - Emily List support)

[atheist4thecause]

Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Dang, makes sense though.

People are drawing leaps of spurious conclusions from this; it is common in media marketing to reallocate spend to target specific demographics.

She was polling 4th and came in a strong 3rd. She is staying in through Super Tuesday at least.

Which I am very happy to see, as I intend to vote for her on March 3 -or earlier once I get my absentee ballot.  I have been looking at potential second-choices (Bernie Sanders included) in the event Elizabeth Warren didn't survive the first four contests as I don't want to see my vote wasted on a zombie candidate.  

You might want to wait til after NH then to see if she is a zombie candidate or not. She’s done if she doesn’t place top 2

She's very unlikely to place the top 2, as currently she's polling 4th. I wouldn't say she's 'done' if she doesn't, but she needs to place in the top 3, keep her core base supporters, keep raising money most of all.

I wouldn't say that Warren is very unlikely to place Top 2. State polls are much more unreliable than National polls, and polls of small states like New Hampshire are even more unreliable even though that's counter-intuitive. In 2016, the last poll before the NH primary was by ARG and had Sanders +9. The aggregate was Sanders +13.3 (other polls were all Sanders leading but by +16, +26, +12, +10, and +7). Sanders ended up winning NH by around 22.5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary

The NH polls right now are all over the place. St. Anselm has a poll that has Sanders and Biden at 19%, Buttigieg at 14%, and Warren and Klobuchar at 11%. Emerson has a poll that is Sanders at 32%, Biden 13%, Buttigieg 17%, and Warren and Klobuchar at 11%. The Boston Globe has a poll that is Sanders 24%, Biden and Buttigieg 15%, Warren 10%, and Klubachar 6%. This just shows how sporadic the polls are, and how we should be careful to say something is unlikely at this point.

[atheist4thecause]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1225517136149458944

It's hilarious how the Woke crowd always cannibalize. This happened with Buttigieg and now with Warren. It has happened so many times. Kamala's campaign had staffers come out about being treated poorly, Klobuchar's campaign same thing...every Democratic campaign seems to have an issue.

[atheist4thecause]

Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Money wins Super Tuesday. She's pulling ads from Nevada and South Carolina where everybody is focusing and trying to put it towards Super Tuesday where you can sneak in and have a good showing in a state or two.

[atheist4thecause]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1225517136149458944

It's hilarious how the Woke crowd always cannibalize. This happened with Buttigieg and now with Warren. It has happened so many times. Kamala's campaign had staffers come out about being treated poorly, Klobuchar's campaign same thing...every Democratic campaign seems to have an issue.

 Warren has already said the buck stops with her and she takes responsibility. That she will get to the bottom of it and do better going forward

 I suppose you find Trump and his campaign staff's awful behavior and never apologize ethos more comforting and reflective of your own morals.

If the responsibility falls on Warren then shouldn't she be blamed for what already happened?

[atheist4thecause]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1225517136149458944

It's hilarious how the Woke crowd always cannibalize. This happened with Buttigieg and now with Warren. It has happened so many times. Kamala's campaign had staffers come out about being treated poorly, Klobuchar's campaign same thing...every Democratic campaign seems to have an issue.

 Warren has already said the buck stops with her and she takes responsibility. That she will get to the bottom of it and do better going forward

 I suppose you find Trump and his campaign staff's awful behavior and never apologize ethos more comforting and reflective of your own morals.

If the responsibility falls on Warren then shouldn't she be blamed for what already happened?

Blamed?  No.  Held responsible?  Yes.  I think there's an important, if small, difference.

Warren should be held responsible for something she doesn't get blamed for? Okay. How are you holding her responsible? Are people refusing to vote for her? Will they stop donating? There is no accountability.

[atheist4thecause]

Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Money wins Super Tuesday. She's pulling ads from Nevada and South Carolina where everybody is focusing and trying to put it towards Super Tuesday where you can sneak in and have a good showing in a state or two.

Would it matter if she drops out before Super Tuesday. If she comes a distant 3/4th in NH & Nevada & 4th in SC, her fundraising will collapse. She has a massive payroll & she will have no money for ads. Nationally she will keep talking& will go to 5% by the time Super Tuesday comes. California & Texas are expensive TV markets & you need money to compete. You need headwind, mometik, decent poll numbers, some victories.

Look @ what happened to Biden. And he is strong in Nevada & South Carolina. You need momentum.

What do you mean look at what happened to Biden? His campaign didn't collapse. What you need to do is stay competitive, but you don't need to win. Biden is a great example of surviving a rough state.

[atheist4thecause]

Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Money wins Super Tuesday. She's pulling ads from Nevada and South Carolina where everybody is focusing and trying to put it towards Super Tuesday where you can sneak in and have a good showing in a state or two.

Would it matter if she drops out before Super Tuesday. If she comes a distant 3/4th in NH & Nevada & 4th in SC, her fundraising will collapse. She has a massive payroll & she will have no money for ads. Nationally she will keep talking& will go to 5% by the time Super Tuesday comes. California & Texas are expensive TV markets & you need money to compete. You need headwind, mometik, decent poll numbers, some victories.

Look @ what happened to Biden. And he is strong in Nevada & South Carolina. You need momentum.

What do you mean look at what happened to Biden? His campaign didn't collapse. What you need to do is stay competitive, but you don't need to win. Biden is a great example of surviving a rough state.

Biden has getting destroyed in the media, has fallen huge in polls & has no money to compete. He has fallen 4-5% in morning consult & Bernie gained a similar amount to overtake him for the first time. He fell bigtime. This is only getting worse.

I agree that his campaign fell. Losing does that. Nobody is saying the campaign won't take a hit when you lose. That would be a stupid argument. But can the campaign continue to survive? Well, the Biden campaign did survive so yes. And that's the most lopsided in terms of results and expectations that this election cycle is going to see.

[atheist4thecause]

What's Warren's game plan? Screw Bernie out of the nomination? It doesn't even look like she's much of a spoiler for him anymore. Coming under 10% in a state she was at 28% at one point last year is a major blow to her campaign. She really has no path forward.

She should drop out to save face.

There's more to running for President than just winning. Some possible scenarios are that she's holding on for Super Tuesday, where she can try to run it up in Massachusetts. The problem with that is that she might not even last that long at this rate if she keeps getting 4th and she may not even be leading her home state at this point. 91 delegates for Massachusetts is nothing to scoff at, though, so it could put her right back in the race. She's also actually leading Klobuchar in delegate total.

Another scenario is that she's holding on to try to get another candidate to give her a deal. Maybe she can get VP or some other administration cabinet promise. Those things have to be negotiated. If she drops out now then she will be giving away her leverage for nothing.