Are People underestimating Democratic Chances at WI in 2024?

[neostassenite31]

I do think that the WI contest in 2024 is a tossup, but like I mentioned in multiple prior posts, it's certain exit poll breakdowns and the fact that WI has continuously trended right relative to the NPV every single cycle since 2008 (not that it's simply voting to the right of the NPV) that really concerns me with regards to this state.


Here are the exit poll breakdowns from 2020 (again) by AP/NORC:
42% of voters are Conservative, 28% are Liberal, 30% ae Moderates (Biden+30)
51% leans Republican, 44% leans Democratic, 5% Independents (Biden+10)
48% has favorable opinion of Republican Party, 40% has favorable opinion of Democratic Party

What this data say is that Biden basically destroyed Trump among moderate voters in Wisconsin (+30 points) and won a double digit lead among independents (+10 points), and still he only very barely eked out a win at less than 0.6 percentage points.

The last breakdown also implies that Biden won not because the Democratic Party image is popular in Wisconsin; in fact, the image of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is actually worse than the image of the Republican Party. Biden won because of strong anti-Trump sentiments, winning over some voters who actually approve of the Republican Party.