Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[neostassenite31]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

[neostassenite31]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

I have brought that up as well but I am inclined to doubt that Virginia would become a safe GOP either ..

But it wouldn't look good for Democrats if there is a GOP sweep in VA in 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and it may bring the GOP to contest the state in 2024.

Regardless of who wins this race, VA will remain a blue-leaning state with the potential to move into the safe column in the next few cycles. Any competent GOP presidential campaign in 2024 will not seriously consider contesting VA regardless of what happens on Tuesday. If they're essentially tied in VA, then the presidential election is already a blowout and there would be no point

[neostassenite31]

Battleground Dems in the Midwest and South better run a very, very thorough autopsy of this debacle and adjust their entire strategy and messaging as soon as possible. The stakes are far too great