StackStrat - Biden +3 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 02:25:38 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  StackStrat - Biden +3 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: StackStrat - Biden +3  (Read 1058 times)
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,828


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: April 25, 2024, 10:58:34 AM »
« edited: April 25, 2024, 11:18:00 AM by RI »
MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,828


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2024, 12:52:50 PM »
Quote from: 支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear) on April 25, 2024, 12:26:52 PM
Quote from: RI on April 25, 2024, 10:58:34 AM
MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:


The model predicts 7-8 point R swings in the Bay Area counties, 5-8 point R swings in coastal SoCal, and also has Travis County TX swinging R by more than any other county in the Texas Triangle. (Metro) NYC and Big City FL have smaller R swings here that I would've expected given the topline of Biden+3 and a 287-251 EC win.

There's a lot of unrealistic mean reversion throughout.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 13 queries.