Early Voting thread.

[RI]

Very early and likely not representative, but Republican ballot returns are about 3-4 points ahead where they were at this point in the primary in my legislative district.

[RI]

Very early and likely not representative, but Republican ballot returns are about 3-4 points ahead where they were at this point in the primary in my legislative district.

I thought there was no party ID in WA?

There isn't party registration, but between the various local campaigns this cycle we've identified how almost every voter leans.

[RI]

TargetSmart's modeled partisan swing from 2020 circa 13 days before the election:

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

My mom is the campaign manager for this one person who ran a couple years back for county-level office and lost but is now running for city council (which she'll likely win). Are you thinking of something like that?

Yeah, something like that. I don't know what opportunities will come up, but I'll keep my eyes open. Maybe a city or county level position.

I've made solid allies with some traditionally left-leaning groups who want to back me going forward, so it'll just be about finding the right time and place. Until then, I'm going to work on improving my resume and community involvement.

[RI]

Was trying to see if I could gleam anything from WA, now that 1M+ votes are in. The top counties by return rates are really a mixed bag, some Biden counties, and some Trump counties. The top return rate though is Jefferson County, a Biden +41 county. It's a small one, but interesting to see they're energized.

The vote return right now is almost entirely correlated with age. Jefferson County is always a high turnout county because it's full of old, liberal retirees. Younger voters vote later.

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

I wouldn't compare to 2018. Thanks to Trump, Republicans are actively holding their ballots this time, as they did in the primary. The only comp I'm making is to the primary, and I'd still say R's are running about 4 points ahead of the primary so far without factoring in what I's are doing.

[RI]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

[RI]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.