2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[RI]

Caruso up 40.6-38.2

[RI]

How I feel about the California results so far depends entirely on whether or not these are early/mail-in votes. Usually California counts them last, meaning a bump for Democrats. A bump for Democrats from the current baseline would mean that state is still trending away from Republicans (and the rest of the country).

The opposite (election day votes outstanding leading to a Republican bump) would mean a number of seats could be surprisingly competitive in the fall, though the state as a whole remains safely Democratic.

These are likely mail votes. Election Day votes get counted next and then late mail votes.

[RI]

Simply throwing Shellenberger's votes away when there was no similar independent in 2018 skews things a bit.

[RI]

Welp, my district's first numbers are way left of where I thought they'd be. GG

[RI]

FWIW, a lot of Washington's R votes haven't been counted yet. There was a big movement to have WA R's vote on ED this year. Not saying it will make a difference in winners, but the story may look a bit different at the end of the week.

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

JHB now leads Kent by 3,930.

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

JHB now leads Kent by 3,930.

IDK... RI

Really respect your opinions, detailed analysis, and most especially maps over the years.

Still from what I am seeing at this point looking most likely that JHB will be the PUB (Incumbent) to run against a relatively united DEM electorate.

Something I'm missing here old friend???

Honestly bit more used to OR-VBM scene and haven't spent as much activities on the (more recent) WA-VBM scene.

Regardless many other posters who don't understand how VBM works on the West Coast, might perhaps need a bit of further explanation, with no gun toting PUBs floating around polling stations, unlike so many other parts of the USA.

Most of the ED vote hasn't been counted yet (yesterday's update was too small to include it) but should be today. Normally this isn't how Washington's counts work, but many of the most conservative/Trumpiest Republicans went full stupid this year and waited until the very end to vote.

If Kent doesn't jump up today, then it's over.

[RI]

JHB's lead over Kent is currently down to 2,078. She probably holds on, but it's tightened a bit.

[RI]

I know Reagan Dunn positions, but - not Matt Larkin's. Another ultra-Trumpist?

Larkin beating Dunn basically guarantees Schrier will win re-election. He's easily the Trumpiest of the big three. I was at a candidate forum with him, Dunn, and Jensen, and Larkin was the only one who said we need to "stop the steal." Plus his slogan is "make crime illegal again" which isn't a bad sentiment but, you know, directly copies Trump's.

[RI]

JHB's lead slightly increased to 1,707 votes.

[RI]

And now down to 1,279.

[RI]

JHB's lead down to 538 votes.

[RI]

257 votes.