2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 648493 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2020, 04:48:12 PM »
All precincts at least partially reporting in Guam.

Biden 14,445 (55.36%)
Trump 10,938 (41.92%)
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2020, 04:53:41 PM »
Since they're coming soon: if early exit polls are useless, they'll be 10x as useless this year.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2020, 05:00:14 PM »
Quote from: Chaddyr23 on November 03, 2020, 04:59:26 PM
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 04:48:12 PM
All precincts at least partially reporting in Guam.

Biden 14,445 (55.36%)
Trump 10,938 (41.92%)

What did it look like in 2016?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_straw_polls_in_Guam
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 05:18:06 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on November 03, 2020, 05:16:39 PM
Racial equality being #2 over coronavirus though...

I really find that hard to believe.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 05:32:31 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 03, 2020, 05:31:05 PM


Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

You're assuming they didn't weight the responses.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 05:36:58 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 03, 2020, 05:35:01 PM
Quote from: kireev on November 03, 2020, 05:33:45 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 03, 2020, 05:33:26 PM
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 05:32:31 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 03, 2020, 05:31:05 PM


Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

Beat you by a second Smiley
You're assuming they didn't weight the responses.
Did they weight it? It doesn't anywhere that they did

I guess we'll have to wait and find out...

If they didn't, their entire team should be fired as they could not reasonably expect >100m voters coming out today.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 05:52:58 PM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 03, 2020, 05:46:41 PM


I don't know if these numbers are real or a test, but this is the type of range Trump probably would need to be in to win the Rust Belt again.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 06:02:25 PM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 03, 2020, 06:01:39 PM
Quote from: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on November 03, 2020, 06:00:11 PM
Does anyone know where you can find live results from Puerto Rico? They also have elections, including a gubernatorial election and the famous plebiscite about statehood

https://www.telemundopr.com/noticias/local/resultados-gobernacion/2144568/

Yes is up
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 06:22:09 PM »
Yeah, Trump isn't going to win.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 06:29:00 PM »
Larue County, KY may be the first pro-Trump swing I've seen (assuming it holds).
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 06:37:33 PM »
Biden has an early lead in Kenton County (Cincinnati burbs).
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 06:47:54 PM »
The current county results in KY are a jumbled mess.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 07:02:28 PM »
NYT has KY called for Trump.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 07:05:12 PM »
FL vote is almost certainly early and mail votes, so not as bad for Trump as it appears.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 07:17:16 PM »
Trump is doing amazing in Miami so far
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2020, 07:22:34 PM »

That's pretty good for Trump
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2020, 07:24:20 PM »
Quote from: Statilius the Epicurean on November 03, 2020, 07:23:28 PM
John King on CNN just said it's mostly election day vote in Miami-Dade and early voting is to be counted.

That's not numerically possible.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2020, 07:25:21 PM »
There were not a million votes cast in Miami-Dade today. Stop.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2020, 07:28:27 PM »
Trump looks strong in the Hispanic parts of Florida lol
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:36 PM »
Trump is improving in Osceola too, so it's not just Cubans.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2020, 07:33:20 PM »
Trump wins WV
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #46 on: November 03, 2020, 07:37:08 PM »
Quote from: JerryArkansas on November 03, 2020, 07:35:52 PM
Once Again, MIAMI is ONLY IN-PERSON EARLY.

Wrong. Only ~387k in-person early votes were cast in Miami-Dade.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #47 on: November 03, 2020, 07:38:25 PM »
First votes coming in from Texas.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2020, 07:39:30 PM »
Huge swing to Biden in Alexandria, VA, of course
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,827


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #49 on: November 03, 2020, 07:39:59 PM »
Trump now leads Kenton County, KY
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