Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v2

[RI]

Beto now jumping in on this

https://twitter.com/PodSaveAmerica/status/1141485329804910592

Beto, after seeing his latest poll numbers:

[RI]

Not sure if this type of story will get any traction, but I could see a few Dems going after this: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe-biden-has-made-millions-since-leaving-vice-presidency-moved-into-5m-mansion-report

[RI]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamilSmith/status/1147973899360931840

Opposition to busing isn't opposition to integration; it's opposition to having your kid shipped across town to a sh*tty school in a ghetto.

[RI]

But he gets no respect from the people who make conventional wisdom on the left.”

The people "who make conventional wisdom" as the most moronic, out of touch people in the country.

[RI]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

[RI]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

Who is the plausible candidate who could take his place in SC? Not Warren, not Buttigieg, not Harris.

Warren. She is becoming the left wing candidate of 2020. She can't win the general but she can do very well in the primary.

Blacks don't care much for Warren, and being the "left wing candidate" will hurt her more with blacks than it will help her. Blacks are the most conservative part of the Democratic coalition.

[RI]

No, he's been bouncing between 25-30% for months.  In the last week or two he's gone back up 5% on RCP.  He still has the highest % of voters considering him, the best numbers vs Trump, the highest (or tied for highest) favorability ratings, and broad support across all demographic groups except young people, who are dumb and never vote.  Furthermore, he is still crushing the field with black voters, he's still winning all the important party endorsements, and his policies are still the most popular among both Democrats and the general electorate.  So his numbers haven't changed and the fundamentals that give him a strong lead haven't changed.

The main dynamic in the race is Warren surging.  She's picked up a lot of the Harris voters as well as the Sanders voters who left after the heart attack.  She's also been winning undecideds.

It's tempting to say that this momentum will last.  But Warren has been cruising on 100% favorable coverage and zero scrutiny.  As we saw in the last debate, her time in the spotlight is here.  Biden could take the heat.  Can Warren?

If Biden loses Iowa and NH he will collapse in SC.

There is no reason to believe that.  Can you point to a single instance of a candidate collapsing in SC because they lost IA or NH?  Different states are different.  If you think Warren is going to have "momentum" because she wins IA + NH, well guess what, Warren has more momentum today than she will ever have again, and her SC polling is... 9%.

Howard Dean

Dean never had more than a small, tentative lead in SC polling in 2004 and a brief one at that. Polling in SC was fractured quite thinly between Edwards, Clark, Dean, Sharpton, and Lieberman for most of 2003 into early 2004. That's not very comparable to what we see today.

[RI]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/11/22/joe-biden-tells-immigration-activist-you-should-vote-trump/4273814002/