2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Politics Fan]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choiceand iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Based on his website I wouldn’t exactly say he’s pro choice. He seems like more of a moderate on the issue but still supports some restrictions on abortion access.

“ Joe O’Dea strongly supports a nationwide ban on late-term abortion, a nationwide ban on taxpayer funding for abortion, a nationwide parental choice requirement, and will fight any attempt to make religious hospitals perform a procedure they object to. Joe is adamantly against Chuck Schumer’s late term abortion bill, and strongly opposes Jared Polis’ late-term abortion bill. ”

https://www.joeodea.com/lifeleaders

[Politics Fan]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Let's see how he holds up in the GE campaign. Running a moderate campaign can either be really successsful or end up making you look like a fool. I could see him flip-flopping too much or smtg pushing normally Dem-leaning but curious voters out of reach.

A good way to think about Colorado politics at this point is in order for Rs to win statewide, Republicans need to have CO-03, CO-04, CO-05, and CO-08 outvote CO-01, CO-02, CO-06, and CO-07. Tbf, in an R victory CO-07 likely wouldn't be netting Dems many if any votes, but CO-01 and CO-02 are extremely hard to outvote and CO-06 should be enough to cancel out CO-08

I'm curious though how "unnatual" Biden's performance was in Colorado in 2020 because that was a very very heavy swing left.

It’s possible that Democrats have simply just hit a ceiling in the state. Biden didn’t win the state by much less than he did so with NJ 13.5% v 15.94%. Similar to NJ you still have a strong conservative minority the non Denver metro which I do think prevents democrats from absolutely running away with the state and I’m not sure that’ll really change. Conversely I imagine the Dem base is fairly close to 50% so losing state wide will prob be a rare occurrence.

[Politics Fan]

Am I stupid or did Michigan not have elections for AG and SOS?

Neither had contested primaries

Row offices are decided via party convention in MI. Both Dems are running for renomination while reps choice Trump aligned candidates back in April.