Is CA-GOV 2021 Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017?

[Politics Fan]

I actually think CA-Gov is probably more analogous to the recall election in Wisconsin where you had a polarizing gov that was reviled by the other party. Ultimately despite some close polls Walker won by 7% and the Republican Party lost the presidency later the year while losing seats in both the house and senate. I could very easily see Newsom win by 7 to 10 points while Democrats lose both houses of Congress next year and a handful of Governor mansions. Heck I could also see republicans still wining in Virginia after losing in CA by 9%. That’s how meaningless the race is to me. The most telling part is how turnout is with both parties.

[Politics Fan]

I really don’t think Newsom is going to get recalled when all is said and done — safe to bet on partisanship/recent trends/demographic realities winning out before relying too much on mixed polling with a large number of D 'undecideds' or recall supporters. Sticking with my prediction of No/Newsom +9 (even if Yes wins on #1, #2 will be uphill for the GOP if there’s a last-minute consolidation effort around the most viable D replacement candidate, and it’s not like the GOP field isn’t splintered either).

I can’t imagine most Democrats will really bother to fill out the second part of the ballot but yeah I agree Democrats will probably outperform there current polling as it becomes more of a binary question of do you want a Republican as your Gov. I also don’t think it really helps the Republican parties chances to have a rather conservative candidate be one of their front runners. Not saying they win if Faulkner is the likely alternative but it’s prob a bit closer like 52-48 versus 54-46 to 55-45.