Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?
It comes down to a few major reasons.
1. Tom Steyer has declined in polls to the help of Joe Biden. This might have been somewhat inevitable based on Steyer not doing well in other state’s but I think being essentially non viable nationally has helped to erode his support.
2. Bernie Sanders strong win combined with Joe Biden finishing second in Nevada has helped turn the primary in a two maybe three person race. Essentially Joe Biden and to a lesser extent Michael Bloomberg are the only nationally viable establishment candidates meaning with Mike not on the ballot undecided voters or supporters of non Biden establishment candidates that don’t want Bernie are liable to rally behind Joe Biden. Keep in mind Sanders support hasn’t gone down much in SC (except for one poll) it’s more his support hasn’t grown.
3. Jim Clyburn endorsement of Biden. While Biden appeared to be on the upswing pre endorsement Clyburn backing Biden has helped Biden to continue to surge. Clyburn is well respected among Democrats in the state especially in the African American community which further has locked in soft Biden support and allowed Biden to take voters from undecideds and other establishment candidates.
4. South Carolina was never that great of a fit for Sanders and Biden is the only nationally viable opposition on the ballot. South Carolina Democrat’s are more moderate than national Democrats and much more supportive of the Democratic establishment. This is especially true among the African American community who respects and trusts Biden from his time as Vice President. African Americans and to a lesser extent Southern whites tend to be more pragmatic and more supportive of incremental reforms instead of bold promises and massive overhauls to the current system which hurts Sanders. The non Sanders and Biden candidates on the ballot simply are not viable nationally and voters tend to be less likely to back candidates that they don’t view as having a chance of wining the nomination which again helps Biden consolidate the anti Sanders support.
The good news for Sanders supporters is that so far Biden hasn’t shown major signs of surging beyond the south which allows Sanders if he can do well outside of the Deep South to keep front runner status this time next week. However if Bloomberg underperforms next week which I think has a decent chance of happening than Biden might be able to perform strongly on Tuesday allowing him to take back front runner status.
