Probably only in a big Dem wave and I am not even convinced she would win if Biden narrowly carries the state. Though I don't think Iowa is as gone as some think. Trump only just got above 50% in the state in 2016 and Iowa is very inelastic and prone to wild swings historically that I wouldn't totally write off Dems chances here in the future though it appears to be a lean R state at least for now. 2020 will probably tell us a lot about the state if Reps take IA-1 and IA-3 and Trump wins by 54-45 while losing reelection or only winning narrowly than it's probably out of play for Ds except for a blue wave or a specific crisis hitting Iowa under a GOP government. However if Dems can hold all three Iowa house seats and have the state vote close to the national average it probably indicates the state isn't done being a swing state.
If Trump and Ernst win IA narrowly while Republicans get blown out across the board nationally (i.e., [close to] double-digit PV win + [close to] 400+ EV win for Biden), that to me would certainly not indicate that Iowa isn’t done being a swing state.
I also don’t get the "lean R state at least for now" part. Do you seriously expect prospects to get more favorable for IA Democrats in the future? There’s a case to be made that Iowa will be the state where Democrats will suffer the most severe losses under a Biden presidency even if he’s not particularly unpopular. Even though I’m not yet ready to predict a massive GOP wave in 2022, I’m almost certain that any 3D/1R or 4D/0R House delegation in IA after this election will be very short-lived (to say nothing of the fact that the partisan composition of a state's congressional delegation is almost always a very poor predictor of said state's competitiveness in national/federal or statewide elections).
I agree in the case of Iowa being competitive in a Biden blowout that would hardly mean it is still a swing state. I was referring more to a situation where the state doesn't deviate significantly from the national average this year in which case imo it would be fair to still consider Iowa a swing state.
I'm not a big believer in over reacting to one election. While I think it would be foolish to write off results in one election as a fluke it's hardly a good idea to assume that any one election can be predictive for a states partisan trajectory. To use 2008 as a guide NC/VA and IN all were historically Republican states at the time that voted Dem for the first time in decades.
Virginia trended hard Dem and has since become a pretty rock solid Dem state
North Carolina has since become a swing state but has had it's D trend restrained somewhat
Indiana has reverted back to being safe R.
I'm not trying to say I don't think IA won't become a red state just that one can't come to that conclusion without more evidence. Keep in mind that Obama won the state twice along with the fact Iowa has been prong to dramatic and somewhat unpredictable swings in the past that we can't see it remaining competitive for Dems in the future.
While Trumps margin of around 10% was impressive him getting just 51% was hardly impressive. I agree that the demographics look good for Republicans in the future though I do think Democrats have a solid base in the state with Polk/Johnson/Linn and Story counties which at least help provide a path to victory for Dems.
