Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.
As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.
Alternate take: virtually everyone who was already willing to vote for a disgusting, lying, fraudulent, rapist, traitor were lying when they said that a conviction would actually matter to them. (Maybe they were lying to themselves, too, or maybe just the pollsters.)
Absolutely. The number of current Trump voters who'd change their minds due to a conviction is close to zero. The possible positive outcome for Biden comes from a conviction possibly reminding some low propensity dem voters and leaners why they were so keen to vote Trump out of office in 2020. So the effect would be one of dem turnout, NOT one of pursuasion.
