A Trump conviction is already losing its significance

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.

As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.

[BG-NY]

I think in general, it's baked in, and the optics of what is perceived by voters as Biden trying to jail his political opponent are bad.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.

As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.

Alternate take: virtually everyone who was already willing to vote for a disgusting, lying, fraudulent, rapist, traitor were lying when they said that a conviction would actually matter to them. (Maybe they were lying to themselves, too, or maybe just the pollsters.)

[BG-NY]

Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.

As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.

Alternate take: virtually everyone who was already willing to vote for a disgusting, lying, fraudulent, rapist, traitor were lying when they said that a conviction would actually matter to them. (Maybe they were lying to themselves, too, or maybe just the pollsters.)

Hating between 45%-50% of the voting public is not a healthy way to live, man. Democratic voters want to raise my taxes, allow more low IQ "legal" immigrants like the one who murdered my mom's uncle, and regulate businesses to death, but I don't hate them.

[DrScholl]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's something that can't even be banked on before the election, so for Democrats' own good the potential for it should be low in calculating how the election might go.

[Red Velvet]

You had THREE non-electoral years to lock up the orange fat monster or at least prevent him from running and you want to do that in front of everyone in the election year where he happens to be the frontrunner according to the polls?

Good luck trying to convince people it’s not political persecution or fear of losing, under that very specific context.

[mjba257]

There is a very good chance no trial happens before the election. The DC case has been postponed indefinitely pending the presidential immunity decision. If the appellate court rules against him, Trump will almost certainly appeal to SCOTUS, which will delay the trial even further. The classified docs case has been delayed and the judge is very friendly to Trump, so great chance it is pushed back passed the election. Georgia case has ran into a bunch of drama with the Fani Willis scandal which will only delay things further and also RICO trials are notoriously long, so almost certainly this case is not resolved before the election, and the NY case is pure trash that no one cares about.

[Sir Mohamed]

For my part, I never sincerly believed a conviction would have the impact as some polls suggested. I think such a development would cause his chances to win the election to dwindle to a certain degree, not that much though. It's not like Biden would win a huge landslide all of a sudden. If we're being honest, barely anyone who hasn't been convinced to abandon Trump after all of this would change his or her mind now. All a conviction might do is a few conservative minded voters sitting the election out, even much fewer holding their nose and vote for Biden.

The truth is a certain segment of voters know Trump is corrupt and a criminal, but just don't care. They think he's some kind of a strongman who's capable of dealing with the issues they care about (immigration, low taxes, owning the libs, whatever). Maybe they also don't care because Trump's baggage doesn't affect their daily lives while cost of living etc. does. It's a sad and painful diagnosis, but the truth.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There is zero chance Trumps convictions will “help” him, if he wins it will be despite that

[Gass3268]

How could Trump be President if he’s in a jail cell?

[soundchaser]

How could Trump be President if he’s in a jail cell?

We talk a lot about "the optics" on this forum, but it's as simple as this -- if Trump is in prison, or even under house arrest, people will reconsider voting for him. A conviction doesn't mean anything by itself; it's the consequences of a conviction (one candidate being in prison) that WOULD matter.

[wbrocks67]

The actual premise of this thread is factually untrue, especially given that the NBC poll shows a net 7% change in the PV if Trump is convicted, which is massive.

Also, the polls that you speak of of voters saying they won't vote for him if he's convicted are literally from the past 1 or 2 months.

It's wild that some people on this forum are now deluding themselves into believing that something as much of a conviction of a former president would not matter.

[RI]

My view has always been that the electoral impact depends on which trials and charges Trump is actually convicted in/on. I don't think a conviction in the Manhattan trial will make any dent in his support, and the civil cases don't matter. The classified documents case might matter, depending on the details that come out, especially if it involves foreign powers or nuclear items. The Georgia case also might make a difference, depending on which charges he's convicted of. If, for example, the only charges Trump is convicted on are something like "filing false documents" then I don't think it will affect the election at all. You need something juicier and more nefarious sounding to sway people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol no it hasn't we haven't voted yet, users think polls are end all be all, the voters not polls have the final say, that's why these Trump +4 polls are hogwash, I am so glad I don't have to enter these silly polls in database

[oldtimer]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

[DrScholl]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

[oldtimer]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

It didn't, the first signs of trouble for Hillary came in March 2015, predating Trump:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/politics/clinton-slips-battleground-states-poll/index.html

Hillary started losing the moment Obama's foreign policy crashed, people blamed Hillary as she was Secretary of State.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

It didn't, the first signs of trouble for Hillary came in March 2015, predating Trump:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/politics/clinton-slips-battleground-states-poll/index.html

Hillary started losing the moment Obama's foreign policy crashed, people blamed Hillary as she was Secretary of State.

Wasn't John Kerry Secretary of State at that point?

[oldtimer]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

It didn't, the first signs of trouble for Hillary came in March 2015, predating Trump:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/politics/clinton-slips-battleground-states-poll/index.html

Hillary started losing the moment Obama's foreign policy crashed, people blamed Hillary as she was Secretary of State.

Wasn't John Kerry Secretary of State at that point?

People didn't blame Kerry for the Arab Spring , they thought he took over to clean up Hillary's mess.

Everything that went wrong after 2012 was blamed on Hillary, regardless if she was at fault.

[Tekken_Guy]

There is a very good chance no trial happens before the election. The DC case has been postponed indefinitely pending the presidential immunity decision. If the appellate court rules against him, Trump will almost certainly appeal to SCOTUS, which will delay the trial even further. The classified docs case has been delayed and the judge is very friendly to Trump, so great chance it is pushed back passed the election. Georgia case has ran into a bunch of drama with the Fani Willis scandal which will only delay things further and also RICO trials are notoriously long, so almost certainly this case is not resolved before the election, and the NY case is pure trash that no one cares about.

If SCOTUS denies cert (which is a real possibility) on the DC trial then the case is back on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you don't think Trump is being hurt by his J6 you aren't paying attention to eDays 22 was already influenced by J6 and we haven't voted yet as I said earlier

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

It didn't, the first signs of trouble for Hillary came in March 2015, predating Trump:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/politics/clinton-slips-battleground-states-poll/index.html

Hillary started losing the moment Obama's foreign policy crashed, people blamed Hillary as she was Secretary of State.

Wasn't John Kerry Secretary of State at that point?

People didn't blame Kerry for the Arab Spring , they thought he took over to clean up Hillary's mess.

Everything that went wrong after 2012 was blamed on Hillary, regardless if she was at fault.

That's something I've always wondered about. My recollection is that Hillary's term as Secretary of State didn't have any major disasters during it, but the wheels pretty much came off US foreign policy once she left. Was it that she was adroitly keeping a lot of plates in the air and that the Obama+Kerry team weren't able to manage foreign relations as well, or is it that she set a lot of fires and and then bailed before they went out of control?

[emailking]

There is a very good chance no trial happens before the election. The DC case has been postponed indefinitely pending the presidential immunity decision. If the appellate court rules against him, Trump will almost certainly appeal to SCOTUS, which will delay the trial even further. The classified docs case has been delayed and the judge is very friendly to Trump, so great chance it is pushed back passed the election. Georgia case has ran into a bunch of drama with the Fani Willis scandal which will only delay things further and also RICO trials are notoriously long, so almost certainly this case is not resolved before the election, and the NY case is pure trash that no one cares about.

J6 likely happens before the election even if SCOTUS takes it up. And the NY case probably happens next month now. That's a trial even if you think no one cares about it.

[BlueSwan]

Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.

As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.

Alternate take: virtually everyone who was already willing to vote for a disgusting, lying, fraudulent, rapist, traitor were lying when they said that a conviction would actually matter to them. (Maybe they were lying to themselves, too, or maybe just the pollsters.)

Absolutely. The number of current Trump voters who'd change their minds due to a conviction is close to zero. The possible positive outcome for Biden comes from a conviction possibly reminding some low propensity dem voters and leaners why they were so keen to vote Trump out of office in 2020. So the effect would be one of dem turnout, NOT one of pursuasion.