Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.
I don't know what to say besides I disagree with every word you just said. Not all of Trump's "coalition" is WWC old people and to be quite blunt it is my firm belief not all young people minorities and politically disillusioned people are stupid. Anyone who was voting for Biden out of genuine support is still gonna do that. Anyone voting for Biden because he's the not a fascist candidate with the best chance are still gonna do that. The only people who will genuinely vote for Kanye West are frat bro MAGA types whose political beliefs end at "haha blindly follow lib owning man" and the jokesters who are preparing their "I only supported trump IRONICALLY" defence. I could maybe see a case for some non-voters turning out for him solely as a joke or because he's a celebrity but the idea whiny progressives or generally disillusioned people are gonna vote for some weird black nationalist paleoconservative instead of staying home or picking some third party sacrificial lamb is genuinely insane. And I haven't even touched the fact West really only stands a chance to get on the ballot in some of the reddest states in the country. West running is absolutely beyond a doubt a net-positive for Joe Biden. Unequivocably. Now when West most likely runs in the Republican primary in 2024 then yes I will be concerned, but for now all this sideshow does is cut into Trump which is absolutely in the country's material interest rn.
Well, it will certainly be interesting to watch. I hope you are right on this, but I'm inclined to think that you are not. I will say that Kanye is one of those third party candidates where it is not completely obvious who he'll draw from the most. I will say this though:
- In 2016 both Stein AND Johnson hurt Clinton more than Trump.
- Republicans are generally more inclined to fall in line than democrats, hence third party candidates almost by default hurts the democrat more.
- Identity voting suggests that Kanye could draw perhaps less politically invested black voters who would otherwise be inclined to default vote for Biden.
- Kanye is a black conservative. Many black people have fairly conservative values despite voting for democrats. He could certainly appeal to those voters.
- Some republicans despise Trump and would be inclined to vote for Biden, but might not have an excuse to vote for Kanye, which will also serve to "prove" that they are not racists.
- Young disillusioned whites who aren't too politically engaged might vote for Kanye for the lols. Would probably otherwise vote Biden or abstain.
So, overall my inclination is that Kanye hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump, but sure, as long as Kanye mainly gets on the ballot in red states, it doesn't really matter.
