Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[BlueSwan]

Will be interesting to see the effect of the Corker debacle. I think this might be the kind of stuff that could push some holdout establishment republicans to the disapprove column.

[BlueSwan]

Maybe both parties should have nominated non-pieces of sh*t?

One party did, but she had the impossible task of running against 20+ years of unfounded, illogical, and many times sexist propaganda.  Was Hillary perfect?  No.  Was she the best candidate?  Absolutely not, and she made many mistakes that led to her defeat.  But she wasn't, as you say, a piece of sh*t.  There is no politician in the US who does not have a checkered reputation or  questionable values and morals.  But she was vastly superior in every way to her opponent; from moral compass, to leadership ability, to intelligence, to composure, to grace, etc etc etc.  She was the only presidential candidate in the history of presidential candidates (non-incumbents) who was literally molded and ready for the job on day 1.

But instead we went with a near literal "piece of sh*t" who is not the master negotiator he claimed to be, nor was he ready or even really willing to take on the role of commander-in-chief.  Someone who quite possibly colluded with a foreign government to meddle in our election on his behalf.  The world's biggest hypocrite; the world's biggest narcissist; the world's greatest liar; and the world's best conman.

Say what you will about Hillary Clinton.  Hate her.  Hate the things that 20+ years of conservative lies tell you.  Even if you consider all of it as truth, she was still better than the utter garbage we elected.

So true.

[BlueSwan]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

This is unfortunately very true. Looking at approvals/favourables nothing much has changed since the election and he "won" that election. I guess the one thing that has changed in some way is that Trump has now proved without a doubt that he is Trump, while some people may have rationalized that he would somehow be different in office to the person he had been for 70 years. That argument is dead. Hopefully that is enough to ensure that he won't win.

[BlueSwan]

Trump's approval has been falling in the 538 tracker, he was at 37.8% a week ago, now he's 1.1% less than that at 36.6%. In RCP he lost 1.5% over the last week from 38.5% to 37.0%. What is causing this change?

Looks like he's at 36.7% approval in 538's model presently, which is only 0.1 point off of his worst day ever.

Hoping for a new record low tomorrow!

[BlueSwan]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

John Kasich is confirming it.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/17/politics/kasich-gop-losing-future/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

Now, if there was only some way that we could get millenials to actually freakin' vote we wouldn't have been in this mess in the first place.

[BlueSwan]

I'll give you this: the sentences in bold perfectly illustrate the problem with American voters.  Half the country doesn't vote, but probably a majority of those who do vote almost entirely on emotion or gut instinct.

Indeed. And this is where political scientists have gone wrong for decades, assuming that voting behaviour is inherently rational, which it obviously is not. This is also where the whole "economic anxiety" theory goes wrong.

[BlueSwan]

Anybody have a reasonable explanation for the Trump surge. He help pass an unpopular tax bill before christmas and since then we have had "Fire and Fury", we have had the public Bannon feud, we have had "sh*tholes", we have had the "very stable genius", we've had the "bigger button" tweet and we have probably had a bunch of other idiotic stuff that I have already forgotten about.

Don't tell it is just statistical noise. There has definitely been a clear uptick in Trumps numbers.

So apparently the tax bill helped him instead of hurting him.

Apparently the Bannon feud didn't alienate the Deplorables.

Apparently the inane amount of hilariously idiotic events didn't hurt him either.

Instead he has surged.

The only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that Trump sceptics are returning BECAUSE of the tax cuts and the Bannon feud, while the deplorables remain loyal to their dear leader regardless of what happens. This further illustrates my point that you can't use Trumps poor approval numbers to predict a democratic 2020 landslide at all. The republican Trump sceptics will find their excuse to vote for him while holding their nose, just as they did in 2016.

[BlueSwan]

Even if the Fox poll is a little bit of an outlier, people on this site should know better than to accuse Fox polling of bias at this point.

Yeah, this has been established a long time ago. Foxnews is heavily biased reporting, but unbiased polling.

[BlueSwan]

I for one believe that there is a Trump "bump" of sorts due to several factors:

1) People are getting tired of the Russia scandal.

2) People are getting used to Trumps style or just can't get worked up over it anymore.

3) Republicans on the fence are deciding that Trump in the white house at least gets them SOME results that they like - like the tax bill.

4) Trump has appeared somewhat less erratic of late - or maybe that is just us getting used to his blowhard style.

5) The economy is still doing well.

6) Trump and the GOP are very good at selling their victories, unlike the dems who were constantly running from Obamacare instead of touting their accomplishments.

7) The #Metoo movement has run amok, which scares away moderates and semi-comservatives who might be tempted to vote for dems over Trump.

[BlueSwan]

But he's not wrong, though.

In the 538 polling average Trump has gained a significant 5 percentage points over the last two months. It would be hard to make a case that Trump is declining based on the available data.

[BlueSwan]

But he's not wrong, though.

In the 538 polling average Trump has gained a significant 5 percentage points over the last two months. It would be hard to make a case that Trump is declining based on the available data.

I doubt that anyone disputes that Trump's approvals have improved from their low point a couple of months ago.  But that's not what he said.  He said that they keep going up -- which was factually untrue, since the three most recent polls all showed a slight decline.  That is the falsehood I was pointing out.

OK, but wouldn't you say that that is a fairly malicious reading of his post which went:

"No sign that any of the so-called "disastrous" past few weeks have had any effect on Trump's approval. If anything, it keeps going up."

I mean, there really isn't any real sign that the last two weeks has made any dent in Trump's numbers and despite the very recent last few polls, his overall trend over the last two weeks has indeed been upward.

BTW, I do know he is a troll, but let's keep it real here. We "professional" observers think that Trump has had a disasterous 2018, but the fact is that his numbers has generally been ticking upwards, for whatever reason.

[BlueSwan]

But he's not wrong, though.

In the 538 polling average Trump has gained a significant 5 percentage points over the last two months. It would be hard to make a case that Trump is declining based on the available data.

I doubt that anyone disputes that Trump's approvals have improved from their low point a couple of months ago.  But that's not what he said.  He said that they keep going up -- which was factually untrue, since the three most recent polls all showed a slight decline.  That is the falsehood I was pointing out.

OK, but wouldn't you say that that is a fairly malicious reading of his post which went:

"No sign that any of the so-called "disastrous" past few weeks have had any effect on Trump's approval. If anything, it keeps going up."

I mean, there really isn't any real sign that the last two weeks has made any dent in Trump's numbers and despite the very recent last few polls, his overall trend over the last two weeks has indeed been upward.

BTW, I do know he is a troll, but let's keep it real here. We "professional" observers think that Trump has had a disasterous 2018, but the fact is that his numbers has generally been ticking upwards, for whatever reason.

Yeah, on reflection I may have read more trollish intent into the original post than was actually there, and responded a little too strongly.  I agree with your summary of the recent trends.

Fair play!

[BlueSwan]

I miss daily Gallup polls, and the horde of posters that would descend on them and proclaim that <x change in net approval from the previous day> proved <theory about latest controversial Trump action>

I miss when his numbers would drop 5% based off one day's sample and everyone would flip out. Good times.

Don't worry, we'll get plenty of that in 2020.