What Senator in 2016 do you most want to see lose?

[nkpatel1279]

Freshman Republican US Senators who may will face a tough re-election campaign.
1)Mark Kirk(R-IL)-who is definetly going to lose re-election to either Michelle Obama,Arne Duncan,Lisa Madigan,Alexi Giannoulias,Dan Hynes,or Mike Quigley.- Democratic Presidential Coattails. Lisa Madigan will be Governor-so she is not going to run. Giannoulias will be Lt Governor-will run for Governor in 2022 when Madigan leaves office. Hynes will be Attorney General. will run for US Senate in 2020-to succeed Durbin. Arne Duncan who will be ending his tenure as Education Secretary-will be a leading DEM challenger against Kirk. Duncan is the IL version of Michael Bennet.
2)Rand Paul(R-KY)-has a 50-50 chance of getting knocked off.
3)Pat Toomey(R-PA)-has a 50-50 chance of getting knocked off.
4)Ron Johnson(R-WI)-has a 50-50 chance of getting knocked off.

[nkpatel1279]

In 2016- Inouye-HI,Grassley-IA,Mikulski-MD,Shelby-AL,and McCain-AZ are likely retirements due to age. Democrats hold onto HI,MD. Republicans hold onto AL.  Democrats have a 50-50 chance of picking up IA and AZ.

[nkpatel1279]

Lets not forget. Freshman GOP US Senators
Boozman-AR,Coats-IN,Moran-KS,Paul-KY,Hoeven-ND,and Lee-UT represent Ruby Red States. They will benifit from GOP Presidential nominee coattails.
Rubio-FL,Blunt-MO,Portman-OH,Toomey-PA,and Johnson-WI will depend on the national environment in 2016 -who the DEM challenger is and how well the 2016 DEM Presidential nominee does in those states.
Kirk-IL and Ayotte-NH the so called moderate Republican freshmans up for re-election. Kirk-IL loses being from a solid Blue State- lose to either Madigan,Simon,Giannoulias,Hynes,Quigley,or Duncan.  Ayotte-NH is going to get re-elected.

[nkpatel1279]

Before the 2010 Election occured
Feingold-WI and Lincoln-AR were expected to face tough re-election campaigns. Both were re-elected in 2004 with 55% of the popular vote against generic GOP challengers. Represent puprle(WI) or Red(AR) states.  National Enviroment did Feingold in. and Lincoln faced a top tier GOP Challenger.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 2000 election 3 1994 Class Republican US Senators lost re-election.
Abraham-MI who lost to Stabenow(D)-a generic DEM challenger due to Gore coattails.
Grams-MN- an accidental rightwing conservative from DEM leaning swing state- Lost to Dayton.
Ashcroft-MO- lost to the recently deceased popular Governor Mel Carnahan.

The 2010 Class Freshman GOP US Senator who will lose re-election or be vulnerable to losing is
Kirk-IL lose re-election to a top tier or credible Generic DEM challenger ie Madigan,Giannoulias,Hynes,Quigley,Duncan,Chris Kennedy,Emanuel,Chico,Pappas,Dart,etc. DEM nominee will benifit from DEM presidential nominee coattails.
Blunt-MO vulnerable to a challenge against Governor Jay Nixon.
Toomey-PA and Johnson-WI are going to be in Spencer Abraham(MI-2000) category.  Can lose depending on the environment and who the DEM challenger is.

[nkpatel1279]

Gillibrand is not going anywhere.

[nkpatel1279]

The 2010 IL US Senate Race between Mark Kirk-R vs Alexi Giannoulias-D is similar to the 2002 MD Governors Race and the 2010 MA US Senate Race.  The Republican Nominee- Mark Kirk(2010 IL US Senate),Scott Brown(2010 MA US Senate),and Bob Ehrlich(2002 MD Governor) are Generic Republicans who campaigned as Moderates. The Democratic Nominee- Alexi Giannoulias(2010 IL US Senate), Martha Coakley(2010 MA US Senate),and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend(2002 MD Governor) are Generic Democrats who were unlikeable. They only won their previous Statewide Elections -2006 IL Treasurer(Giannoulias-D) and 2006 MA Attorney General(Coakley-D)- because of they were running against weak Generic Republicans. plus 2006 was a DEM wave year.
Mark Kirk-R would have lost in 2010 had IL Democrats nominated IL version of Ben Cardin. Looking at the MD US Senate Race in 2006. Republicans nominated their best candidate- Michael Steele-R despite being gaffe prone- Steele is a credible Republican candidate for the US Senate. Democrats nominated Ben Cardin who was the boring but safe choice.  Cardin won in 2006 by a 10 point margin-in a DEM wave. Had MD had a open US Senate race this year and Democrats nominated a weak or controversial Candidate ie Mfume,Glending,Townsend and Republicans nominated a mainstream Generic Republican Steele,Ehrlich,and Pipkin,- The Republican would narrowly win.  Ehrlich-MD lost re-election in 2006 aand rematch in 2010. Brown-MA is going to lose re-election in 2012 to a stronger DEM challenger. and Kirk-IL is going to lose re-election in 2016 to a stronger DEM challenger.

[nkpatel1279]

Is their a credible African American  DEM challenger against Kirk in 2016.

[nkpatel1279]

Giannoulias-D a young inexperienced controversial liberal Democratic Nominee from Chicago who was an unsuccessful banker who had ties to organized crimes narrowly lose a high profile US Senate Race by a less than 2% margin against a Mainstream Moderate/Conservative Republican Nominee who is a 5 term US Congressman from a Democratic leaning Swing District from the Chicago Suburbs. factoring a National Republican wave, Corruption involving the recent former DEM Governor and unpopularity of current DEM Governor. and string Liberal third party challenger- LeAlan Jones.
If Kirk ran in 2004 and he ran against a weak DEM opponent ie Mosely Braun or Giannoulias. Kirk would have narrowly lost due to Kerry coattials.

[nkpatel1279]

Obama -a two term State Senator from Chicago won the DEM primary for the 2004 IL US Senate Race with over 50% of the popular against a crowded field included the safe but boring establishment candidate- Dan Hynes, the controversial wealthy billiniore Blaire Hull and Local Chicago politicians- Gerry Chico and Maria Pappas.  In the general election. the GOP nominee Alan Keyes was the IL version of Christine O'Donnell.  If Obama faced Jack Ryan,Mark Kirk or Peter Fitzgerald- the 2004 IL US Senate Race would have been highly competitive but Obama would have narrowly won due to Kerry coattials.
Giannoulias-a one term Statewide elected official narrowly won the DEM primary for the 2010 IL US Senate Race against David Hoffman- who basically was an outsider/reformer candidate by a 39-34 with Cheryl Jackson- the black candidate from Chicago getting 25%.  Giannoulias won because he was the establishment candidate and he was progressive. Had Hoffman did an effective job advertising his progressive credentials- hed actually win the DEM primary. Hoffman needed to out liberal teabag Giannoulias- clerking for David Boren did not help. I am surprised that Gery Chico did not run because unlike Madigan,Kennedy, he was available to run for the US Senate and he was less controversial and more progressive enough to stop Alexi from getting the Democratic nomination. Chico was a non factor in the 2004 IL DEM US Senate Primary because he had to compete against Obama-who was the rock star, Hull who had the money, Hynes and Pappas who had name recognition and electoral experience.

[nkpatel1279]

Toomey was able to campaign as a moderate because he did not face any opposition in the Republican primary.  Arlen Specter was going to lose in the Republican Primary.  and Peg Lusik was not a serious candidate. Since Toomey knew he was favored to win the GOP primary- he had a luxury of running as a Moderate Republican ie Rubio-FL-Post Crist defection,Kirk-IL,Portman-OH and Blunt-MO.

[nkpatel1279]

Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2016 who is most likely to lose re-election.
Mark Kirk(R-IL)- high single digit/low double digit loss  against Lisa Madigan.
narrow to high single digit loss against Dan Hynes, Rahm Emanuel, Sheila Simon, Mike Quigley or Arne Duncan.
narrow victory against Giannoulias or Jackson Jr.
Democratic US Senator up for re-election in 2016 who is most likely to lose re-election. Harry Reid-NV if Republicans nominate a top tier challenger ie Brian Sandoval or Dean Heller or Joe Heck.