Virginia in Presidential Elections

[sg0508]

In an election where Obama lost approximately 2% on average for each state, he did so in the Old Dominion and still won it by almost four points.  That says something.

[sg0508]

The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.

[sg0508]

It's the youth vote that changed the Old Dominion in a hurry.  The GOP offers NOTHING in terms of what Millenials want or value. Now, we can all say the Millenials will eventually run the country into the ground, and it may be true, but this I will say about that generation (mine)....it's 90% about the social issues (mostly progressive) and only 10% economic.  Most Millenials do not give two damns about fiscal responsibility, one of the reasons this country is screwed, but they do tend to favor gay marriage, weed legalization, and abortion rights, not to mention the "entitlement" belief that society/gov't should clean up their crap if/when they screw up.  The Democratic Party caters to that very well. 

By the way, I'm a Millenial, and as a guy who took his education very seriously and has been working since I'm 14, I'm horrified at this generation.  We don't have a chance.

Northern VA is mostly young people folks that love DC and the DC suburbs.  Few to none of those people are voting Republican.

[sg0508]

Do not forget that Mark Warner castrated John Kerry for giving up on VA so early in 2004.  Warner tends to come across as one of the more blunt and honest politicians and he said the Old Dominion was winnable for Kerry in 2004 (he lost it by eight points with a virtual pullout in the summer).

Even if Bush had won the state, which he probably would have, Kerry never made him sweat there the way Bush forced Kerry to spend time in MI, MN, etc...states that in the end, we knew would probably go Democratic in that cycle. 

It was pretty clear even back in 2000 that VA was changing.