Biggest Suprise

[sg0508]

You didn't put Wisconsin on there? That may have been Bush's biggest disappointment.  He was up by double digits there in the fall and as usual, democrats closed hard.  That almost cost him the election because had he lost OH, he could have made up for it with WI and either IA or NM, but just IA/NM weren't enough.

[sg0508]

Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.

Why was NC a surprise to you? There wasn't a single poll showing Kerry close to Bush in NC.  The closest I believe was an eight pt margin following the selection of Edwards.