Biggest Suprise

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

North Carolina for me. (The tiny swing, then comes 2008, haha)

[sg0508]

You didn't put Wisconsin on there? That may have been Bush's biggest disappointment.  He was up by double digits there in the fall and as usual, democrats closed hard.  That almost cost him the election because had he lost OH, he could have made up for it with WI and either IA or NM, but just IA/NM weren't enough.

[ElectionsGuy]

Write-in: Wisconsin

[⛄]

Iowa

[Sasquatch]

At the time, I remember the margin of victory in West Virginia being the biggest surprise.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.

[sg0508]

Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.

Why was NC a surprise to you? There wasn't a single poll showing Kerry close to Bush in NC.  The closest I believe was an eight pt margin following the selection of Edwards.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.

Why was NC a surprise to you? There wasn't a single poll showing Kerry close to Bush in NC.  The closest I believe was an eight pt margin following the selection of Edwards.

I thought that the selection of John Edwards as John Kerry's running-mate might have flipped North Carolina, albeit barely. Granted that at the time I was only 10 and knew little about politics and the voting patterns of specific states.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Just realized I put Iowa twice here.

[Flake]

I didn't know anything about politics at that point. With hindsight, I voted New Mexico.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Iowa going for Bush over Kerry was a huge surprise for me.  Iowa was a Dukakis state that has always been more dovish than the rest of the nation.  I thought that Iowa would be a state that would go for the Democrats as a protest against Bush's war policies; even its GOP has been somewhat dovish over time.

[MIKESOWELL]

I voted Hawaii. I recall how the later polls had concerned the Kerry campaign so much that they were forced to go out there and campaign in a state that should have been pinned down already, and making them play defense in their own territory. On a side note, one thing that I remember about Election Night 2004 over Election Night 2000 was how quickly the networks were calling the Bush states compared to the Kerry states.

[Miles]

WV being an all county shutout for Romney.

I'd also say Obama winning IA by a relatively comfortable margin in 2012.

[Sumner 1868]

write-in: New Hampshire voting for Kerry after supporting Bush in 2000.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon closer the Florida

[Mr.Phips]

I'm not sure why Wisconsin isn't listed.  Bush led there in the poll aggregate right up to the end before narrowly losing.

[super6646]

Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.

Why was NC a surprise to you? There wasn't a single poll showing Kerry close to Bush in NC.  The closest I believe was an eight pt margin following the selection of Edwards.

I thought that the selection of John Edwards as John Kerry's running-mate might have flipped North Carolina, albeit barely. Granted that at the time I was only 10 and knew little about politics and the voting patterns of specific states.

You made electoral map predictions when you were 10?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Biggest surprise is that no one noticed you spelled it "suprise"

[SingingAnalyst]

Wisconsin

[SenatorCouzens]

The result / map was so similar to 2000 I don't recall being very surprised at anything. The decisive/comfortable Bush win in Florida I remember being surprised at, naturally in light of 2000. There hasn't been a margin as big as Bush's 5 points since.