If Biden wins, can Dems still have a net gain in Senate seats in 2022?

[Catalyst138]

Traditionally the party in power loses Senate seats in the midterms. However this was not true in 2018, due to an unusually R-friendly Senate map.

In 2022 the shoe may be on the other foot since the Senate map is very favorable to Democrats. They don’t have any red state or swing state seats to defend besides lean-D Nevada. There are also multiple possible pickups in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and maybe even Iowa (if Grassley retires)

Can Dems gain Senate seats in 2022, and possibly take it back even with a Democratic president?

[Catalyst138]

Eh we have seats to defend in New Hampshire and Colorado, too. I think both incumbents (esp. Bennet) start out favored, but those races will be competitive.

I think WI and NC are strong pickup opportunities given they'll be open seats, but start out toss-up at best (NC likely closer to Lean R given the bench). PA might be challenging given Toomey always seems to pull it out - though maybe this is the year he doesn't. Iowa would be very, very tough.

I'd expect the results to be around net neutral or D+1. That assumes Biden isn't extremely unpopular for whatever reason. If he is, Dems will lose seats.

I’ve heard Bennet is pretty popular, and CO is becoming less and less favorable for the GOP as time goes on. I suppose there’s an outside chance of the GOP picking it up, but I don’t see it.

I forgot about NH though. Still a slight lean D state but it’s certainly competitive.

[Catalyst138]

They could still gain seats in the Senate in 2022 (most likely in PA/NC/GA; Republicans would start out favored to hold every other R-held seat, including WI), but the idea that the 2022 map is as favorable to Democrats as the 2018 map was to Republicans is ridiculous, as is the idea that Iowa would be competitive in a Biden midterm.

Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.