the black vote in 2030

[dazzleman]

I think that eventually, the black vote will become more competitive as new generations come and upward mobility continues.

For older black voters who lived through the 1960s, their attachment to the Democratic Party is highly emotional, and not subject to change.  But succeeding generations will lose that connection, particularly those who are upwardly mobile economically.

I don't think that any demographic group can be considered assimilated and politically mature when they're voting monolithically for one party.  This type of voting is a sign of alienation from the mainstream.  Other demographic groups eventually outgrow this type of voting, and I hope that blacks will eventually also.

One major positive sign that I saw this year, which was largely unnoticed, was the poor showing Al Sharpton had among black voters.  In 1988, Jesse Jackson performed very well among black voters, and there was a danger (for the Democrats) that he would capture enough delegates to get the nomination (which would have led to a 50-state defeat for the Democrats).  That year, it seemed black voters voted for Jackson simply because he was black.  The fact that Sharpton didn't enjoy similar undeserved support is a positive sign of political maturation.