Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215657110.html

Revising my thought that the SoS was in the bag - Taylor has a chance here, it's not as certain as I initially thought.

Some fundraising numbers: Kelly $573k raised, $236k COH. Svaty: 213/36. Orman: 880/1.3M.

Yeah, not good for Svaty, Kelly looks to wrap this up.

[tmthforu94]

I'm shifting my position: I think Kobach might be narrowly favored now, as much as I hate to say that. The Dole endorsement was good for Colyer, but he really needs a couple more positive things to happen in the next week to make me feel comfortable. The race will be close.

Also I'm hearing on the ground that Steve Watkins is pulling ahead in the 2nd over Tyson and Fitzgerald. He has a great backstory but is under fire since he apparently thought about running as a Democrat initially but changed his mind. www.therealstevewatkins.com

[tmthforu94]

Huge endorsement: Kansas icon and national hero Bob Dole endorses Jeff Colyer https://twitter.com/HunterMw/status/1023932472252420096?s=20

It doesnt matter, Doles are old news. Laura Kelly, was endorsed by Sebelius is an overachiever

Your second sentence doesn’t make sense grammatically, so I’m not sure what you mean by that.

[tmthforu94]

Correct, Sebelius is Kelly's neighbor and encouraged her to run. Kelly is (probably) going to win this solely because of Sebelius' fundraising and networking help. Also, it's not going to significantly alter the race like a Trump endorsement would, but Dole's endorsement is a big get in Kansas and will probably earn Colyer a few thousand votes, which could be the difference!

[tmthforu94]

BREAKING

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180803/gop-consultants-say-kobach-campaign-has-white-nationalists-on-payroll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...is anyone surprised?

[tmthforu94]

Praying for Kobach

This philosophy is exactly what is wrong with American politics today.

[tmthforu94]

This mentality is why you people will continue to lose elections!

[tmthforu94]

FWIW, I think Kelly would curb-stomp Kobach if the race was head-to-head, but I don't necessarily fault Orman for running. I think if those are the two nominees, he has a serious shot of gaining momentum and winning. I would most likely vote for him in that scenario.

[tmthforu94]

Disappointing. Slim Colyer chance remains, keep in mind Trump finished third in the caucuses and is not popular in urban areas that Kobach needs to do well in. Still, race is likely Kobach, I’d be surprised if he loses.

[tmthforu94]

Don’t have the link but Colyer internal has him up 34-32. The positive is that a good chunk of undecideds are moderate voters who will be unswayed by Trump endorsement, if anything may draw them more to Colyer. I’d also like to gripe that if this were a two way race, Colyer would still probably win. Barnett is definitely a spoiler candidate.

[tmthforu94]

Uh, Kevin Yoder is very blatantly trying to swing the KS-03 primary towards Welder. This strange ad features upbeat stuff about Welder and only at the end sneaks in "too progressive for Kansas". It's a McCaskill move!

https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/4164a82f-ac20-49f8-9959-fcea165d0943/c3NoZXBhcmRAcG9saXRpY28uY29t?link_id=35&can_id=8762883206b037d1dcf91501775e9e3a&source=email-morning-digest-poll-finds-gop-oklahoma-governors-historic-unpopularity-giving-democrats-an-opening&email_referrer=email_396121&email_subject=morning-digest-poll-finds-gop-oklahoma-governors-historic-unpopularity-giving-democrats-an-opening

Sad! Now you're getting a taste of how I feel when I see Democrats cheering on Kobach!!!

FWIW, I fully realize Welder is the weakest and because of that, I won't be too upset if he wins. But I'd strongly prefer that Niermann or Davids win tomorrow, they might be stronger but I honestly wouldn't mind having either of them as my representative.

[tmthforu94]

A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.

I meant Kobach. Who would win each of these one-on-one matchups?

Matchups:
Kobach (R) vs. Kelly (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Colyer (R)
Kobach (R) vs. Svaty (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Orman (I)
Kobach (R) vs. Brewer (D)

Bolded my picks, the first four are pretty straight-forward IMO, Kobach vs. Brewer is hard to tell.

[tmthforu94]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

[tmthforu94]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

Well, maybe this is just a crazy idea, but some prefer each party nominating the best candidate to help ensure that Kansas has the best governor possible.

Let me see if I can word this in a simpler way that you can understand: Orman takes away more votes from the Democrats, which will benefit both Republican candidates.

[tmthforu94]

A question: when can Orman decide to drop off, IF such though comes to his mind?

I think it is early September but I can't find the exact date. Specifically, that is when his name can be removed from the ballot. He could obviously drop out the day before the election and encourage his supporters to vote for Kelly/Svaty.

[tmthforu94]

Less than 1000 votes but Kelly is leading Svaty and all that is reporting is west of Topeka.

[tmthforu94]

Governor (D)
Precincts Reporting:
7 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Arden Andersen   18   
Jack Bergeson   16   
Carl Brewer   84   
Laura Kelly   493   
Joshua Svaty   400   

Governor (R)
Precincts Reporting:
7 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Jim Barnett   222   
Jeff Colyer   1,025   
Kris Kobach   694   
Patrick "PK" Kucera   24   
Tyler Ruzich   10   
Ken Selzer   311   
Joseph Tutera Jr.   7   

[tmthforu94]

Insurance Commissioner(R)
Precincts Reporting:
8 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Vicki Schmidt   1,264   
Clark Shultz   1,034   

Could turn into an interesting race to watch - Schultz is the Deputy Insurance Commissioner and was the conservative establishment favorite. Schmidt is more of a moderate and is a state senator (also endorsed by Bob Dole).

[tmthforu94]

Tmth projection (sorry VPH): Kelly will be Democratic nominee

[tmthforu94]

Tmth projection: Scott Schwab wins GOP nomination for Secretary of State

[tmthforu94]

I know a couple other sites are finding things a little quicker, but I am using SoS website: https://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html

Governor (D)
Precincts Reporting:
21 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Arden Andersen   229   
Jack Bergeson   272   
Carl Brewer   3,056   
Laura Kelly   3,636   
Joshua Svaty   1,514   

Governor (R)
Precincts Reporting:
21 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Jim Barnett   1,778   
Jeff Colyer   6,501   
Kris Kobach   6,121   
Patrick "PK" Kucera   174   
Tyler Ruzich   74   
Ken Selzer   1,527   
Joseph Tutera Jr.   56   

[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins Douglas County (Lawrence) early vote 51-24. Hilarious because the local county chapter is very far-right and pro-Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins JoCo early vote 48-33. Going to stop posting updates on Dem-GOV race as Kelly is running away with this.

Governor (R)
Precincts Reporting:
985 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Jim Barnett   10,910   
Jeff Colyer   47,772   
Kris Kobach   44,237   
Patrick "PK" Kucera   1,083   
Tyler Ruzich   784   
Ken Selzer   8,992   
Joseph Tutera Jr.   525   

[tmthforu94]

Vicki Schmidt up by 10k for Insurance Commissioner, looks like she will win. A pleasant surprise.
COI (R)
Precincts Reporting:
945 of 3539
Candidate   Votes   
Vicki Schmidt   55,751   
Clark Shultz   45,816

Sharice Davids wins early vote for KS-03 Democratic primary. Looks like that'll be a close race.
US House 3 (D)
Precincts Reporting:
2 of 628
Candidate   Votes   
Sharice Davids   4,922   
Mike McCamon   1,188   
Tom Niermann   3,359   
Jay Sidie   448   
Brent Welder   4,288   
Sylvia D. Williams   766   

[tmthforu94]

Tmth, does Colyer still have a path to victory?

At this point, yes. His margins aren't what I hoped in the 1st (western Kansas) but he is holding his own in Wichita area right now and is doing surprisingly well in southeast Kansas, which is Trump Country where I thought Kobach would heavily win. He won JoCo early vote by 15%, if he can keep the margin there close to that, I think there is a chance. It's going to be very close either way.