Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Carl Brewer has selected former Garnder, KS (Population 21,000) Mayor and Navy Veteran Chris Morrow as his running-mate. Morrow, as the vice-chair of the Johnson County Democrats, might boost Brewer in JoCo, but probably not by much. Overall geographically a much safer pick than what was rumored, but Morrow is also a boring speaker. I don't see him helping an awful lot on the trail or with fundraising.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kansas/articles/2018-05-22/brewer-picks-another-ex-mayor-kansas-governors-race-ticket

A very safe pick - I'm not sure he brings much to the ticket. Lost bad to Julia Lynn in 2016 for State Senate.

I agree with you on Selzer's pick - then again, he is polling at like 5% so wasn't expecting him to pull in a big name.

[tmthforu94]

I would imagine Svaty will try to avoid bringing up the pro-life issue at all costs. I'm a fan of KFL but unsure why they feel the need to weigh in on school district races.

[tmthforu94]

Think this got missed:
http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2018/may/17/marci-francisco-pulls-out-secretary-state-race-fil/

Marci Francisco drops out of Secretary State race to run for State Treasurer. Now looking at likely downballot matchups:
Secretary of State: Schwab vs. McClendon
Treasurer: LaTurner vs. Francisco
Insurance Commissioner: Schultz vs. McLaughlin

Republicans should win every race by double-digits. I think McClendon will keep the SoS race interesting, but the other two should be walks for the GOP.

As for Attorney General, incumbment Derek Schmidt is running for reelection. To my knowledge there are no Democrats who have filed yet, though I could be wrong. Regardless, he will be the most likely Republican to win a statewide office.

[tmthforu94]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

[tmthforu94]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

I find this really funny, but also sadly telling. Moderates are more likely imo to pick Colyer to keep Kobach out. I ran into O'Malley a few weeks back and he told me he dropped out because he didn't see a path to victory for himself.

I agree - thankfully Selzer is running on a similar message to Kobach. As long as this stays a two person race and Selzer or Barnett (lol) don't surge, I think Colyer will have the edge. I think he's been fairly competent as Governor and seems to be gaining establishment backing. Kobach is just a walking disaster, I think Kansans are smart enough to avoid that (whether it be in primary or general).

[tmthforu94]

One question to Kansas locals about state legislative primaries in light of never ending war between Republican conservatives and Republican moderates: after quick glance  on candidate list i noticed, that relatively "experienced" moderates (sometimes - "almost liberals"), especially in suburban districts (Clayton, Gallagher, Rooker and some other) are mostly unopposed in their primaries, while "new" ones (Good, Judd-Jenkins and other) almost invariably have intraparty opposition. An attempt by conservatives to overturn 2016 results (which went mostly in moderate's favor, and led to many anti-Brownback votes in legislature), while these newcomers didn't get too entrenched? Which are their chances for success now (when Brownback is no longer in office)?

I think you're spot on with this - Republicans are trying to win back traditionally conservative districts before the moderate in there now becomes too entrenched. A lot of the districts that moderates hold in the House and Senate are seats that would probably flip to Democrats if a conservative won the primary, and I think there is an understanding of that, hence why party leadership doesn't support primary challenges to them.

[tmthforu94]

Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!

Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%

Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary

[tmthforu94]

Andy Reid (coach of Kansas City Chiefs) is wading into the race and attending a fundraiser for Colyer tonight. The Falling Star and others have criticized it considering his silence on the NFL kneel policy, but hopefully it'll help Colyer gain a bit more traction!

http://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/pivot-point/article212140559.html

[tmthforu94]

2 tmthforu94. First of all - thanks for info about legslative candidates! But there is another question: how did it happen, that moderate wing of Republican party almost ignores statewide and federal elections this year? No serious candidates for governor, for example, where choice is, essentially, between rather bad conservative (Colyer) and atrocious conservative (Kobach), no serious moderate candidate in relatively moderate (by Kansas standards) KS-02, no serious moderate opponent to conservative Yoder in rather moderate KS-03, and so on. The only moderate i know running statewide is state Senator Vicky Schmidt (for Insurance commissioner). Why so???

I'm not entirely sure - I think a moderate could only win in a split field, they're definitely not a majority in the party statewide. You're right that moderates missed an opportunity in the Governors race - I think someone just right of center could have jumped in and won against a divided conservative field. Problem is that there wasn't a big name wanting to do it - Lynn Jenkins was the best bet (she would have easily won the primary) but opted against it. I'm not sure if some of the smaller names would have been able to build up enough traction.

Regarding other statewide races, the Republicans running are all strong candidates who can appeal across the party. I'd even argue that Schmidt is more aligned with the moderates than the conservatives.

[tmthforu94]

Judge orders Kobach to go back to school

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I would make a post every time Kobach is involved in another controversy, but I am afraid I'll be reported for spamming the thread.

[tmthforu94]

Ted Nugent is campaigning for Kobach this weekend. No need to post an article, I'm sure everyone can infer what is happening.

[tmthforu94]

Also, 3rd GOP debate happened today. Colyer finally went after Kris Kobach on a number of issues. He had previously declined to attack Kobach.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMTnLiMJdAM&feature=youtu.be

[tmthforu94]

Governor Colyer assists after a wreck in Lenexa (KC suburb) this afternoon.

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/kansas-governor-helps-after-bad-wreck-on-k10

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[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

Yes it was. That being said, Olathe/Gardner is still a very conservative part of the county and the Olathe GOP Picnic is known to be a hotbed (stealing your word ) for very conservative political activists. Kobach easily won this straw poll 1 year ago, so it was a bit of an upset to see Colyer win.

[tmthforu94]

Colyer picked up a couple big endorsements in Wichita:
https://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/news/2018/07/09/gov-colyer-picks-up-wichita-endorsements.html

Momentum seems to be swinging Colyer's way, Kobach has not ran a good campaign and it has been one controversy after another. I'm hopeful that enough Republicans realize that Kobach is toxic and would probably lose in November, taking a lot of Republicans down with him. The attack ads write themselves.

[tmthforu94]

NRA endorses Colyer over Kobach
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article214988005.html

[tmthforu94]

I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

[tmthforu94]

^^^Agreed with Saint. Barnett is largely a non-factor, he will probably end up somewhere between 5-10%. Selzer has a decent base in Johnson County so will probably hit double-digits, but neither has gained much traction and based on fundraising numbers, I doubt they will make up ground in the remaining three weeks.

[tmthforu94]

FYI - the deadline to register to vote was this past Tuesday (7/17).

[tmthforu94]

The times have changed, party's are more partisan. I think this race is more personal - Kevin Yoder is in the same state as Bollier, the same district. He has a close working relationship with many in the legislature as he used to be in there, so people take it more personally when she goes against the party and backs his opponent.

Bollier has been extremely critical of GOP officials for years and votes to the left of even some Democrats in the Senate. It continues to baffle me why she is still a Republican, hopefully after this stunt she decides to finally be honest with the voters and become a Democrat. I'm supportive of moderate politicians (Sykes, Cox, Finch, etc.) and conservative politicians - she is neither.

[tmthforu94]

The 3rd is my home district - part of me would LOVE for Welder to win because I think he is the most beatable, but he still has an outside shot at winning. He'd get thrashed in a normal year - he isn't a true Kansan and is way too liberal for the district. Ultimately I want to ensure my district has the best representative possible so am cheering for Niermann. I think he would excel at constituent services, which is a big issue for me.

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215654245.html
https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215653550.html

The Wichita Eagle, the most notable paper in Kansas, endorses Laura Kelly for Democratic primary and Jim Barnett for the GOP nomination. Kelly makes sense, but endorsing Barnett is a joke. He has little chance at winning (his wife is his Lt. Governor) and this is a missed opportunity to help stop Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

Huge endorsement: Kansas icon and national hero Bob Dole endorses Jeff Colyer https://twitter.com/HunterMw/status/1023932472252420096?s=20

[tmthforu94]

I know yard signs and television ads aren't necessarily an indicator, but here is what I'm seeing as a JoCo resident:
Republicans
Colyer has a huge sign advantage, Kobach and Selzer are about neck and neck. I expect this is how the county will vote - Colyer polls in the mid-40s, followed by Kobach and Selzer right behind (JoCo is Selzer's base).
Colyer has a lot more ads on television, though I did see my first anti-Colyer/ACLU advertisement last night.

Democrats
I've seen a few Svaty signs here and there, I don't think I've seen a single one for Kelly or Brewer in south JoCo. Most Democrats in the county I know are supporting Kelly, a sizable chunk for Svaty and a LOT are undecided, as VPH indicated. Kelly has had the most television ads, I see hers run several times a day. I've seen Svaty and Brewer ads once or twice. I think this race could end up anywhere from a moderate (10%) Kelly win to a narrow Svaty win.