Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Ok, now there are only 2 hours left. Unless Orman is literally going to announce his decision at midnight, it appears your source was inaccurate.

I did not say that it was guaranteed to happen yesterday. He began informing people yesterday morning so i expected an announcement yesterday, but maybe he’s waiting for the right moment. I still expect it to happen very soon!!!

[tmthforu94]

Ok ok ok - my source is very good, very close to the campaign. I asked for follow-up and was told it is expected early this week so I thought it might be today, but no! Orman has also pulled his advertising. Perhaps he had a change of heart, but I still suspect a withdrawal within the next few days.

I am changing the headline - not because I think my source is wrong, but going to wait until the official announcement. I wouldn't have leaked this so soon if I knew it would be several days before the announcement because I knew the haters would come after me.

[tmthforu94]

Just got polled by Tarrance - should expect poll results from them within a week.

[tmthforu94]

I voted today. Poll worker it has been reasonably busy so far, they're projecting over 1/3 of Kansans will vote early. JoCo taking steps to ensure they can report quickly in a couple weeks.

[tmthforu94]

Dodge City, a majority Hispanic city with 27,000 residents, has one polling place.  It has been moved outside the city limits to a location a mile walk from the nearest bus stop.

https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html

I am sure there are legitimate reasons for this that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. /s

I completely think the fact that there is only one polling place is voter suppression, I haven't heard any argument that adequately defends this. I do know that the local elections office has been strongly encouraging early voting, sending out advance ballot applications to everyone with English and Spanish instructions. Also, it had to be moved from it's previous location because of construction, though I have a hard time believing they couldn't find a better location (such as a school gym).

[tmthforu94]

So that Orman dropping out thing was a complete hoax?

My question, too. Looks like this wasn't a real thing. Sad!

What a self-important POS.

A top official in his campaign was telling donors that he was dropping out and to hold off on donating any more. Obviously something changed, though unsure why as I haven't seen any Ormanentum on the ground.

[tmthforu94]

Early voting numbers in Sedgwick haven't been good for Republicans. Honestly everything has just been brutal for Kobach this month, I don't think I've seen a single positive article or ad about him.

[tmthforu94]

Democratic AG candidate Sarah Swain was denounced and condemned by the Kansas Democratic Party in May for having a controversial image of Wonder Woman strangling a police officer featured in her law office.

Last week the Sedwick County Democratic Party promoted a Swain event using that picture. Hasn't gained much traction, just sharing some news on downballot races. Incumbent AG Derek Schmidt (R) is heavily favored in this race, it'll almost certainly be the biggest margin of victory.

[tmthforu94]

Kansas Speaks (Fort Hays State) Docking Institute Poll: Kelly leads Kobach and Orman 40-36-10. Trump approval at 45-47 in the poll. 91% of poll respondents are familiar with Kobach, compared to only 62% for Kelly.

Note: this poll was conducted over a wide span of days (August 22nd - September 25th) so may not be the best measure of where the race currently stands.

https://www.fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/kansas-speaks-report-fall-2018

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Other Source on 2018-09-25

Summary: D: 40%, R: 36%, I: 10%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

Kansas Speaks (Fort Hays State) Docking Institute Poll: Kelly leads Kobach and Orman 40-36-10. Trump approval at 45-47 in the poll. 91% of poll respondents are familiar with Kobach, compared to only 62% for Kelly.

https://www.fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/kansas-speaks-report-fall-2018

Isn't Trump approval a bit low for KS?

I think so. These polls are great and very detailed - a lot of useful data for Kansas political gurus, but every year it seems to lean a bit to the left in sampling and this year doesn't look like an exception.

[tmthforu94]

I have never listened to Orman speak until just now, and my God, his voice is annoying.

When I heard he was going off the airwaves, my first thought was "Oh good, I don't have to hear his voice anymore.'

[tmthforu94]

My final predictions:

Governor
Laura Kelly: 45%
Kris Kobach: 43%
Greg Orman: 10%

1st District
Roger Marshall: 66%
Alan LaPolice: 31%

2nd District
Steve Watkins: 48%
Paul Davis: 46%

3rd District
Sharice Davids: 50%
Kevin Yoder: 46%

4th District
Ron Estes: 56%
James Thompson: 41%

Secretary of State
Scott Schwab: 53%
Brian McClendon: 44%

Attorney General
Derek Schmidt: 63%
Sarah Swain: 37%

State Treasurer
Jake LaTurner: 56%
Marci Francisco: 44%

Insurance Commissioner
Vicki Schmidt: 62%
Nathan McLaughlin: 38%

[tmthforu94]

Democrats outperforming a bit but pretty happy with my predictions, it looks like I got every race right. There will be longterm benefits for Republicans with Kobach's defeat, will be interesting to see how both sides move forward.

Johnson County was brutal for Republicans. The party will need to regroup and figure out how to win back suburban voters (here and across the country).

[tmthforu94]

My final predictions:

Governor
Laura Kelly: 45%
Kris Kobach: 43%
Greg Orman: 10%

1st District
Roger Marshall: 66%
Alan LaPolice: 31%

2nd District
Steve Watkins: 48%
Paul Davis: 46%

3rd District
Sharice Davids: 50%
Kevin Yoder: 46%

4th District
Ron Estes: 56%
James Thompson: 41%

Secretary of State
Scott Schwab: 53%
Brian McClendon: 44%

Attorney General
Derek Schmidt: 63%
Sarah Swain: 37%

State Treasurer
Jake LaTurner: 56%
Marci Francisco: 44%

Insurance Commissioner
Vicki Schmidt: 62%
Nathan McLaughlin: 38%

Quoting this again because now that 100% of precincts are reporting, I basically nailed these spot-on! If only my Senatorial and Gubernatorial predictions were as accurate!!

[tmthforu94]

Tmthforu,
The democrats + the anti brownback republicans now have a majority in both chambers, correct?

No, not at all. There were no Senate elections this year, currently we have a 30-9 edge in the Senate.

In terms of party affiliation, I believe Democrats actually lost a net of 1 seat. They ran some very poor campaigns in winnable races. Several rural Democrats were wiped out. There were also several primaries back in August where a conservative beat a moderate and then the conservative went on to win this week.

Conservatives actually gained seats in the state, though I haven't been able to tabulate final numbers. Conservatives are somewhere between having a majority and having a super majority, I'm just not certain on the margin yet. Either way, Kelly will not have a super-friendly legislature to work with.

[tmthforu94]

Excellent analysis of legislative elections - both sides picked up 5 seats so composition remains the same. A bad night for moderates, the legislature is now more partisan.

https://gametheoryblog.wixsite.com/gametheory/single-post/2018/11/10/Blue-Trickle-and-Rural-Red-Rout

[tmthforu94]

Brent Welder changed his Facebook page's name from "Brent Welder for Congress" to "Brent Welder for Kansas" and just posted an article about Pat Roberts saying "Tick tock Senator Pat Roberts, your time is up in 2020".

I think he's running...

I don't *think* Roberts is going to run for reelection but I don't think think an official decision has been made. My money is on Roger Marshall for the GOP side. That being said, I would LOVE for Welder to run and be the Democratic nominee, I can't see him doing well with moderate Republicans.

Since there are no other statewide/gubernatorial races in 2020, I will create a Kansas megathread in the congressional elections board.

[tmthforu94]

Rough legislature composition
Conservative Republicans: 64
Moderate Republicans: 21
Democrats: 39

Conservative Republicans take a narrow majority.

[tmthforu94]

Was coming on here to post that - no surprise. Bollier votes to the left of many Democrats and received a lot of backlash for endorsing Davids over Yoder in KS-03. Republicans aren't shedding a tear over her defection.

[tmthforu94]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

[tmthforu94]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

About 52% Clinton is a "conservative district" now? And - you mean Cox and Kesinger?

Based on what I know about the district, I'd argue there is an opportunity for a conservative to win a state level race in the 21st. 2020 will be difficult for all JoCo Republicans with Trump on the ballot, but at the same time, I think the GOP brand in the state will improve now that we can move on from Brownback and Kobach. I'm curious to see if someone more liberal tries to run against Sykes in the Democratic primary.

Yes - Cox and Kessinger are the two I had in mind, there are probably a couple more.

[tmthforu94]

Roberts considering retirement and Marshall would look at running if Roberts retires.

I'm not sure Marshall could win a statewide primary

Curious why you think that? I think he is probably best positioned of anyone to replace Roberts. He supports Trump but is still seen as more of an establishment figure after taking down Huelskamp. He’s from the 1st which has the most influence in GOP primaries, and he really doesn’t have any major record blemishes that will bring him down.