Obviously Greenfield won’t outperform Peters, but is anyone else amused at how wrong this forum ends up being about literally every race? I miss the good old days of 2019, when absurdly strong, retail-politicin’, motorcycle-riding, folksy, #populist 
incumbents Ernst and Senator Peters were going to outperform the top of the ticket by 5-15 points and be immune to even a massive wave in favor of the opposite party.
The UT are dropping like flies.... again. 
Whoever wins the Republican nomination for KS-SEN is more likely to lose than Ernst, not just Kobach.
I gave another reason why there were many Clinton/Grassley (and Clinton/Portman, Clinton/Rubio) voters: Patty Judge ran a terrible campaign.
Did people really say this before she lost in a landslide? Even if you’re right, a "terrible campaign" isn’t going to explain away a 15-point Republican overperformance, and neither is the theory that people voted for Clinton and Grassley to put a check on her presidency.
And I'm not even saying that Ernst will lose, simply that she won't be overperforming Trump by an enormous margin barring what I mentioned in my previous post.
Depends on how you define "enormous", I guess. 20 points is obviously ridiculous, but 10 points? 5 points? Hardly impossible. Even if you truly believe that split-ticket voting is dead and she doesn’t outperform Trump at all, she’ll almost certainly still be favored.
Thinking that Iowa is at least more winnable for Democrats than a state like Kansas isn't exactly radical, unless you're only looking at the 2018 gubernatorial results.
I never said that KS is more winnable for Democrats than IA in the presidential race, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if KS-SEN ended up being more competitive than IA-SEN. Even if it doesn’t, there’s no way Republicans hold NC, GA, AZ, and TX if Ernst loses.
4-0 R Iowa is more likely than Ernst losing (but tbf, that’s really not saying much). If it does happen, it will be interesting to hear from the "Iowa’s a swingy swing state that’s more likely to flip than AZ/GA/FL/TX because of its 3-1 D delegation" people like Politician. 
Obviously Ernst winning by double digits (regardless of who Dems nominate), but everyone will pretend that this (as well as IA-PRES) is a Toss-up until the results start trickling in.
This is funny because I was planning on starting exactly the same thread today, lol. Anyway, Ernst is a terrible person who doesn’t derserve to be in the Senate (the fact that her "Squeal" ad probably helped her campaign in 2014 makes me sick to my stomach), but Democrats shouldn’t underestimate how many voters are going to fall for her "folksy"/"populist" farmer/combat veteran shtick. I’m getting Jon Tester vibes from her, and it certainly helps that she’s a very strong retail politician in a state Trump is favored to win in 2020. Lean/Likely R, I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if she won by double digits.
I think it's just you. No need to blame "this forum".
