If Republicans had bothered to put someone on the ballot here, they could have won, especially if Frownfelter pursues the write-in campaign. As it stands, I doubt they have much chance.
What are the chances of him not being seated?
Honestly it is pretty low, at this point people are aware of what happened and if they choose to elect him, that is their democratic prerogative. I haven't heard much murmurs locally on whether or not he should be seated. Heck if anything Republicans probably want this kid to win, as it is ammo to use against Democrats in the future. Based on what I know about him, he will make many moronic statements to come.
I'm asking you because I'm sure you know more about Kansas than me. From what I can tell, this guy won a low information primary and has no challenger. Not exactly will of the people material. Now, he might make Democrats look bad for two years until he gets primaried but a. how many Republicans will be energized by this scumbag and b. does it outweigh the good will formed by ousting someone clearly unfit for office, where both parties can agree that dude is basura.
Frankly, incidents like this make me proud to be a Californian, as the top two system means we always have a choice. I'm not trying to bash Kansas, btw, we've seen things like Al Greene running for Senate in South Carolina where it's just a giant WTF. I'm a good government type where any GOP write in would probably be better, honestly.