2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

My 40 is Long Beach-San Pedro. Barragan takes 40. My 44 is actually Lowenthal's old district. Maybe Diedre Nguyen or Josh Lowenthal takes my plurality-Asian 44?

Probably Diedre Nguyen.

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

[SevenEleven]

bonus: here is as Asian a district you'll get while staying out of Arcadia and those Asian suburbs, and other hotspots for the Asian population in SoCal.
I like how painfully gerrymandered it is.

This district gave me cancer.

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

Cox is Fresno too (my 18). I guess Rudy Salas? McGuire or Wood takes my CA-01? What about my 14 (center of San Jose)?

Most of Cox's territory is in Hanford and Kern. With his scandals, he should run in familiar territory.

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

Cox is Fresno too (my 18). I guess Rudy Salas? McGuire or Wood takes my CA-01? What about my 14 (center of San Jose)?

Most of Cox's territory is in Hanford and Kern. With his scandals, he should run in familiar territory.

Who takes my 18 (Fresno), Nunes? Are McGuire and Wood the most likely possibilities for my CA-01? What about my CA-14 (San Jose)?

Nunes, I don't think so. What's the Clinton %?

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

Cox is Fresno too (my 18). I guess Rudy Salas? McGuire or Wood takes my CA-01? What about my 14 (center of San Jose)?

Most of Cox's territory is in Hanford and Kern. With his scandals, he should run in familiar territory.

Who takes my 18 (Fresno), Nunes? Are McGuire and Wood the most likely possibilities for my CA-01? What about my CA-14 (San Jose)?

Nunes, I don't think so. What's the Clinton %?

My DRA statistics say 56.62 GOP. Is that the Clinton %?

It depends on what data set you're using. But if it's that Republican, Nunes probably carpetbags. I only look at 2016 because state elections are volatile and PVI is a useless metric.

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

Cox is Fresno too (my 18). I guess Rudy Salas? McGuire or Wood takes my CA-01? What about my 14 (center of San Jose)?

Most of Cox's territory is in Hanford and Kern. With his scandals, he should run in familiar territory.

Who takes my 18 (Fresno), Nunes? Are McGuire and Wood the most likely possibilities for my CA-01? What about my CA-14 (San Jose)?

Nunes, I don't think so. What's the Clinton %?

My DRA statistics say 56.62 GOP. Is that the Clinton %?

It depends on what data set you're using. But if it's that Republican, Nunes probably carpetbags.

It's 54.6% GOP. It's close. Maybe Nunes?

The brown one? Definitely Nunes.

Does Cisneros take my 38 (Hacienda Heights)?

Norma Torres

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.

Costa is Fresno, not Bakersfield-Hanford.

TJ Cox takes that district. Or god forbid, Rudy Salas.

Cox is Fresno too (my 18). I guess Rudy Salas? McGuire or Wood takes my CA-01? What about my 14 (center of San Jose)?

Most of Cox's territory is in Hanford and Kern. With his scandals, he should run in familiar territory.

Who takes my 18 (Fresno), Nunes? Are McGuire and Wood the most likely possibilities for my CA-01? What about my CA-14 (San Jose)?

Nunes, I don't think so. What's the Clinton %?

My DRA statistics say 56.62 GOP. Is that the Clinton %?

It depends on what data set you're using. But if it's that Republican, Nunes probably carpetbags.

It's 54.6% GOP. It's close. Maybe Nunes?

The brown one? Definitely Nunes.

Does Cisneros take my 38 (Hacienda Heights)?

Norma Torres

Pomona is in CA-35. Is it Cisneros then? Does Porter take my 45, even though UC Irvine isn't there?

Probably. Territory represented matters a lot more than home location. See: Grace Napolitano.

The red district probably goes to a Republican.

[SevenEleven]

You should try keeping CA-22 east of the 99.

[SevenEleven]

You should try keeping CA-22 east of the 99.

I'm gonna make sure I got this right before changes: you want the 4K east of the 99 in Tulare (majority white) to be traded for probably Farmersville (overwhelming HVAP) into 21? because the rest of CA22 is east of the 99. The only other pop east of the 99 is Tulare city, and that has to remain with CA22 from it's present iteration. It's a a heavy city by population, but it's 40% white by VAP, meaning it has no place in a VRA seat.

It's 44k people and 69% Hispanic. See if you can move it to district 21.

[SevenEleven]

You should try keeping CA-22 east of the 99.

I'm gonna make sure I got this right before changes: you want the 4K east of the 99 in Tulare (majority white) to be traded for probably Farmersville (overwhelming HVAP) into 21? because the rest of CA22 is east of the 99. The only other pop east of the 99 is Tulare city, and that has to remain with CA22 from it's present iteration. It's a a heavy city by population, but it's 40% white by VAP, meaning it has no place in a VRA seat.

It's 44k people and 69% Hispanic. See if you can move it to district 21.

Did you ignore everything I said about how turnout rates are abysmal in the south valley and how the current district (and this successor) is drawn to be uber-Hispanic since that is that only way to get it to 50% Hispanic by voters? Adding Tulare, a city 40% white by CVAP and majority white by Voters, in exchange for areas that are majority Hispanic by Voters is going to negatively effect the districts potential to select the Hispanic communities candidate of choice.

Lol, I really don't think you want to be lecturing me about this part of the state. If you want to boost the Hispanic% you shouldn't be going through Kings County in the first place. You can get above 70% and up to 60% CVAP going through Visalia County instead.

[SevenEleven]

You should try keeping CA-22 east of the 99.

I'm gonna make sure I got this right before changes: you want the 4K east of the 99 in Tulare (majority white) to be traded for probably Farmersville (overwhelming HVAP) into 21? because the rest of CA22 is east of the 99. The only other pop east of the 99 is Tulare city, and that has to remain with CA22 from it's present iteration. It's a a heavy city by population, but it's 40% white by VAP, meaning it has no place in a VRA seat.

It's 44k people and 69% Hispanic. See if you can move it to district 21.

Did you ignore everything I said about how turnout rates are abysmal in the south valley and how the current district (and this successor) is drawn to be uber-Hispanic since that is that only way to get it to 50% Hispanic by voters? Adding Tulare, a city 40% white by CVAP and majority white by Voters, in exchange for areas that are majority Hispanic by Voters is going to negatively effect the districts potential to select the Hispanic communities candidate of choice.

Lol, I really don't think you want to be lecturing me about this part of the state. If you want to boost the Hispanic% you shouldn't be going through Kings County in the first place. You can get above 70% and up to 60% CVAP going through Visalia County instead.

You mean Tulare County?

Yes, doh. I meant Tulare County outside of Visalia, which would get paired with Clovis and the mountain communities. You could then go north from there or South to the whites in Kern County. Kings County belongs more with Fresno farming communities as it is. The only reason that wasn't done before was due to Kings County being subject to pre-clearance.

The main question is about what to do with the Kern whites and whether to split Fresno County into two districts or three districts.

[SevenEleven]

You should try keeping CA-22 east of the 99.

I'm gonna make sure I got this right before changes: you want the 4K east of the 99 in Tulare (majority white) to be traded for probably Farmersville (overwhelming HVAP) into 21? because the rest of CA22 is east of the 99. The only other pop east of the 99 is Tulare city, and that has to remain with CA22 from it's present iteration. It's a a heavy city by population, but it's 40% white by VAP, meaning it has no place in a VRA seat.

It's 44k people and 69% Hispanic. See if you can move it to district 21.

Did you ignore everything I said about how turnout rates are abysmal in the south valley and how the current district (and this successor) is drawn to be uber-Hispanic since that is that only way to get it to 50% Hispanic by voters? Adding Tulare, a city 40% white by CVAP and majority white by Voters, in exchange for areas that are majority Hispanic by Voters is going to negatively effect the districts potential to select the Hispanic communities candidate of choice.

Lol, I really don't think you want to be lecturing me about this part of the state. If you want to boost the Hispanic% you shouldn't be going through Kings County in the first place. You can get above 70% and up to 60% CVAP going through Visalia County instead.

You mean Tulare County?

Yes, doh. I meant Tulare County outside of Visalia, which would get paired with Clovis and the mountain communities. You could then go north from there or South to the whites in Kern County. Kings County belongs more with Fresno farming communities as it is. The only reason that wasn't done before was due to Kings County being subject to pre-clearance.

The main question is about what to do with the Kern whites and whether to split Fresno County into two districts or three districts.

I'm sorry, maybe you arn't clear enough but I am struggling to follow this post. From my perspective, Tulare outside of Visalia means the white parts of Tulare...but Visalia is majority white by CVAP? Kings is presently paired with the Fresno farmers to the west of the city...but this post implies they arn't linked? I treid to go back and look at the map you drew of the south valley for guidance, but that didn't help.

I was talking about on your map. If your goal is to boost the Hispanic% of the South valley district you should pair Kings County with Fresno and pair the farming communities in Kern and Tulare counties with Bakersfield.

Visalia would be the surplus population, which you would pair with Clovis.

What my main dislike on your map was the cut in, cut out of Tulare County. The current map does this in districts 3 and 24 and I don't like it there either. I don't think voter turnout matters for these purposes, as CVAP is basically your eligible voters and it's not anyone else's fault that these people don't bother to show up to the polls.

[SevenEleven]

Basically I am saying that I disagree with your goal of trying to boost Hispanics to over 50% turnout instead of 50% CVAP, but if that is your goal then you should be going through Tulare and Kern, and kicking Kings over to Fresno. You can get up to 60% CVAP and no double-cutting.

Pairing Kings with Fresno then allows a more Latino district on the I-5 corridor, getting you to about 52% CVAP there.

[SevenEleven]

SNIP

I don't think voter turnout matters for these purposes, as CVAP is basically your eligible voters and it's not anyone else's fault that these people don't bother to show up to the polls.

Neither do I, but the commission last time ordered CA21 explicitly to be 50% Hispanic by voters, recognizing that turnout and registration rates are abysmal. One should remember that the seat they produced in 2010 was a legitimate tossup based on the data they had available. Things have slightly shifted as more Hispanics have become voters through various routes, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. Therefore it's unlikely they change the specific order to the mappers, even if they change the districts shape. Similar to the dual AA seats in LA, the commission will have Latino members who will balk at lowing Hispanic opportunity, which is what such a move in the valley would entail.

Now, changing the dual-cut nature of CA21 into Tulare is easy, and that will be changed on the next map. I'll come up with something later for your main suggestion, doing a CA21 -> CA22 + CA23 -> CA16 -> Kings rotation of Kings 150K pop later and see what happens. 

Where were you planning on putting the rest of Kern County? Antelope Valley or Victor Valley?

[SevenEleven]

This is the sort of configuration I've been playing with. Morgan Hill and Gilroy fit a lot better with San Benito, so you might instead cut up into San Joaquin or further into the mountains for district 10



I'm not wedded to the Monterey-San Benito pairing, so this diverse ag district appeals to me just fine.



If not, you could always do this and decide whether to cut toward Sacramento or grab those neighboring Contra Costa towns (probably the better option as these areas are increasingly intertwined).

This way you have no double cuts or unnecessary three-way small county splits.

I actually really like your bottom map. It's not pretty but it gets the job done.

[SevenEleven]

My personal issue with your 10 is that you are destroying a potential Hispanic opportunity seat, and like has been explained earlier, the commission has a hard on for minority access seats thanks to their overlapping criteria. Similarly, your 20 is probably not performing. Taking in San Benito ends the opportunity for a 'Strawberry Fields' Hispanic seat along the coast, unless one is ready to traumatize San Jose - and that's before we start talking about crossing the Coast Range. I'll play around with it and see what is possible, but I get the feeling one is going to need to trade my 10 for your south valley, and the commission prefers minority access over more natural COIs as seen in CA53, CA27, SD12....

The current CA 53 is a product of Imperial County being covered under Section 5 of the VRA, which was struck down in Shelby v. Holder. This is also why Kings County can now be maneuvered with.

SD 12 is kind of just a "leftovers" district that they were able to make Hispanic majority.

Obviously, there is room to trade some Hispanic voters into district 10, but it will lower CVAP, which is probably fine. I'll mess around a little bit with it.

Current CA-21 is 71% and CA-16 is 58%, so those would be good baselines.

[SevenEleven]

CA-10 above 50% Hispanic
CA-16 at 54.5% Hispanic.
CA-21 at 70% Hispanic.
CA-22 above 58% Hispanic.

[SevenEleven]

My personal issue with your 10 is that you are destroying a potential Hispanic opportunity seat, and like has been explained earlier, the commission has a hard on for minority access seats thanks to their overlapping criteria. Similarly, your 20 is probably not performing. Taking in San Benito ends the opportunity for a 'Strawberry Fields' Hispanic seat along the coast, unless one is ready to traumatize San Jose - and that's before we start talking about crossing the Coast Range. I'll play around with it and see what is possible, but I get the feeling one is going to need to trade my 10 for your south valley, and the commission prefers minority access over more natural COIs as seen in CA53, CA27, SD12....

The current CA 53 is a product of Imperial County being covered under Section 5 of the VRA, which was struck down in Shelby v. Holder. This is also why Kings County can now be maneuvered with.

SD 12 is kind of just a "leftovers" district that they were able to make Hispanic majority.

Obviously, there is room to trade some Hispanic voters into district 10, but it will lower CVAP, which is probably fine. I'll mess around a little bit with it.

Current CA-21 is 71% and CA-16 is 58%, so those would be good baselines.

Your thinking specifically. Ever district flows with it's neighbors. The commission has explicit guidelines that unintentionally favor the creation of minority districts. Preclearence effects very little of this big picture besides where specific populations end up.

Right, but pre-clearance has caused communities of interest to be broken up, such as with Imperial County and the aforementioned Kings County, while also creating roadblocks for other COIs.

SNIP

CVAP?

CA-10: 38.5% (43.8% white CVAP)
CA-16: 41.9% (42.4% white CVAP)
CA-21: 55.5%
CA-22: 46.4% (39.3% white CVAP)

[SevenEleven]

I'm just going to be completely level with you here: do you think the original map posted would be fine if Pottsville and Tulare switched districts? Because that is a very easy solution to what is expanding into a big conundrum.

I mean you could do that and the map would look cleaner. But creating two white San Joaquin Valley districts is effectively diluting the Latino vote here.

Probably the main difference between what I'm doing and what you're doing is that I didn't cut further than the Coachella Valley into Riverside County for my CA-36.

[SevenEleven]

I'm just going to be completely level with you here: do you think the original map posted would be fine if Pottsville and Tulare switched districts? Because that is a very easy solution to what is expanding into a big conundrum.

I mean you could do that and the map would look cleaner. But creating two white San Joaquin Valley districts is effectively diluting the Latino vote here.

I didn't mean Pottsville, that was a derp. Check the edits.

Well, I was surprised that you had mentioned making CA-10 a minority district but I made it work. CA-22 is the obvious choice for a Latino district in the valley, I believe it was drawn 46% last round and is probably close to 50% now with it's current boundaries, so there's a very natural population base to create dual Latino majority districts here, which is what I did. But you can bolster CA-10 at the same time without really creating any holes in CA-16.

My map got way better when I took CA-36 up into SB County.

[SevenEleven]

What I did was create a 200 district map to organize my identified COIs and areas that belong together, which gives me those population totals and demographics, then I start with VRA districts and put the puzzle together from there.

I also don't stress too much about the exact Hispanic% in non-VRA districts as they will inevitably be higher with 2020 numbers due to more accurate response rates and natural population growth.

[SevenEleven]

What I did was create a 200 district map to organize my identified COIs and areas that belong together, which gives me those population totals and demographics, then I start with VRA districts and put the puzzle together from there.

I also don't stress too much about the exact Hispanic% in non-VRA districts as they will inevitably be higher with 2020 numbers due to more accurate response rates and natural population growth.

How should I draw the Bay Area? It's such a pain. I have more trouble there. Is it fine that I like to put Catalina with all the Channel Islands?

I usually fill the Tri-Valley, Palo Alto-Mountain View-Sunnyvale, and central San Jose districts first. Then I max the Asian areas of Fremont and Milpitas and build from there.

[SevenEleven]

What I did was create a 200 district map to organize my identified COIs and areas that belong together, which gives me those population totals and demographics, then I start with VRA districts and put the puzzle together from there.

I also don't stress too much about the exact Hispanic% in non-VRA districts as they will inevitably be higher with 2020 numbers due to more accurate response rates and natural population growth.

How should I draw the Bay Area? It's such a pain. I have more trouble there. Is it fine that I like to put Catalina with all the Channel Islands?

I usually fill the Tri-Valley, Palo Alto-Mountain View-Sunnyvale, and central San Jose districts first. Then I max the Asian areas of Fremont and Milpitas and build from there.

What's the Tri-Valley?

Livermore, Dublin, San Ramon, etc.

[SevenEleven]

How come you are all keeping the CA-21 gerrymander largely intact?

You have to have a district here that can elect a candidate of choice for the Latino community.