2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[SevenEleven]

here is a closeup.

Where was your starting point on your map? We need to fix Orange County.

I think separating San Pedro from Long Beach in favor of Huntington Beach is a non-starter. One of the biggest mistakes on the current map was CA-47.

[SevenEleven]

How should I draw the Central Valley?

Are you starting with the South San Joaquin Valley without cutting into Lancaster as the current map does?

Yes. Lancaster is solely in CA-25. My OC Latino district is 52% Latino CVAP. Notice Lancaster on this map. My OC northern coast district is now plurality-Asian in total population

I like it.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

What I mean to say is that the only reasonable pairing is connecting Inyo and Mono in to eastern Kern or San Bernardino county.

What's wrong with something like this?

[SevenEleven]

Meh.

It's tough because you have to be able to draw the Hispanic seats to the appropriate population levels.

[SevenEleven]

So I'm going to post my map slowly, to gauge reactions and perhaps make adjustments. However, since I'm generally trying to follow the commission guidelines, so things may be unchangeable.

The biggest 'innovation' on my map is the new version of the successor seat to CA25. The first thing I did when I drew this seat was identify that the districts's primary COI is it's opposition to LA. The Antelope Valley, like upstate New York, wishes to remain separate from the population south of the mountains, even though they are tied by the political lines of LA county. The thing is, using DRA's 2020 data there is only 669K residents living north of LA. This leaves one in a bind: do you cut city in the west, do you use the back roads to stick some San Gabriel suburbs in the seat, or do you leave LA county and cut into a neighbor. In my view, the best option was to leave LA intact and head for a neighbor. This is only reinforced by the fact that the natural lines of the San Fernando valley (everything north of the Hollywood hills neighborhoods and west of Burbank/Glendale) is only 27k over the two-district threshold, meaning a cut to the west for your 83K people is going to lead to cascading COI cut. Simi Valley belongs with Thousand Oaks in it's own COI, so the current Ventura-Antelope pairing is less preferable, and one should search for a new option.



That new option is heading east into San Bernadino. Now, one might immediately be raising issue with the fact that Victorville gets separated from Apple Valley. However, this is done to fulfill a secondary COI Increasing Hispanic Opportunity. This version of the seat is 50% Hispanic and 31% White. Even though it is only 40-40 by CVAP, this is still an increase in Hispanic opportunity and therefore should be pursued.

Everything else though more or less works fine. The districts is 99% north of the mountains with the 1% being along the I15. All the major population centers are along the 138. Everything is in the High Desert. Lancaster, Palmdale, and Victorville are all demographically similar, especially when compared to the whiter Santa Clarita. Speaking of Santa Clarita, that belongs with it's suburban brethren to the west, rather than the exurban communities in Antelope Valley.  Oh, and the only reason why we cut into Kern is for Edwards AFB, whose two precincts, an empty one in LA and the main base in Kern, are inseparable.

Oh, and taking in pop to the north helps me relieve pressure on the main part of LA county so as to preserve all minority seats.

I generally like this, it's a shame you can't simply pair the Antelope Valley and Victor/Apple Valley together for one district otherwise it's perfect.

I like pairing Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley together as outlying commuter communities though, as it doesn't require a split of either valley. The double cut into Ventura County is fairly annoying though on my map.

I'm also not sure about splitting Edwards AFB from Mojave like that.

[SevenEleven]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

[SevenEleven]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

All of Marin County is in CA-07, with parts of the East Bay; anticipating DeSaulnier's retirement. CA-07: Jared Huffman

Are you using 2010 or 2018 population?

[SevenEleven]

This is what I did.

[SevenEleven]

It's still not guaranteed that CA loses a district. I really hope that doesn't happen. I updated my 53 district map.

[SevenEleven]

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

[SevenEleven]

The Trump districts are CA-1, CA-4, CA-5, CA-23, CA-44, CA-48, and CA-50.

CA-48 and CA-50 are both under 50% Trump.

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

No, even though he did pretty well there. Any ideas on somebody from any of the four counties in that area?

Mike Thompson until he retires, then possibly Mike McGuire.

[SevenEleven]

Is my CA-37 here the most "hipster" district in the country?

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

No, even though he did pretty well there. Any ideas on somebody from any of the four counties in that area?

Mike Thompson until he retires, then possibly Mike McGuire.

Thompson doesn't live there (he's from Napa). Maybe Jim Wood?

He'll move.

[SevenEleven]

Should I consider my CA map perfected? y/n

the beverly hills-malibu-canoga park-agoura hills district makes me uncomfortable as someone from LA. crossing the santa monica mountains is iffy

It's pretty unavoidable without cutting into Oxnard.

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

No, even though he did pretty well there. Any ideas on somebody from any of the four counties in that area?

Mike Thompson until he retires, then possibly Mike McGuire.

Thompson doesn't live there (he's from Napa). Maybe Jim Wood?

He'll move.

Thompson will carpetbag? It makes more sense to have McGuire or Wood. Who takes my northern Sacramento-Yolo-Colusa-Yuba district?

Ami Bera

[SevenEleven]

People move to keep their jobs all the time, even outside of politics.

[SevenEleven]

It's still not guaranteed that CA loses a district. I really hope that doesn't happen. I updated my 53 district map.

Who takes the green Riverside district?

Perhaps Jose Medina.

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

No, even though he did pretty well there. Any ideas on somebody from any of the four counties in that area?

Mike Thompson until he retires, then possibly Mike McGuire.

Thompson doesn't live there (he's from Napa). Maybe Jim Wood?

He'll move.

Thompson will carpetbag? It makes more sense to have McGuire or Wood. Who takes my northern Sacramento-Yolo-Colusa-Yuba district?

Ami Bera

That makes sense. Who takes Lowenthal's old district, maybe his son Josh (he's from Huntington Beach) or Diedre Nguyen? Who takes my CA-41 (San Bernardino and Inyo)? Who takes the Temecula-Escondido district on your map?

Ken Calvert.

Nanette Barragan probably takes the Long Beach district.

Olbernolte probably takes the SB district.

[SevenEleven]

Is that the 53 district map? Who takes district 4 in yellow?

Yes. CA-5 is 50% Trump, so probably someone from the Redding area. I guess it depends on what kind of nominee the Dems produce in Mendocino/Humboldt.

Who might take CA-01 on my map? I imagine it would be a very liberal Democrat. Any ideas?

Kevin De Leon? 😂

No, even though he did pretty well there. Any ideas on somebody from any of the four counties in that area?

Mike Thompson until he retires, then possibly Mike McGuire.

Thompson doesn't live there (he's from Napa). Maybe Jim Wood?

He'll move.

Thompson will carpetbag? It makes more sense to have McGuire or Wood. Who takes my northern Sacramento-Yolo-Colusa-Yuba district?

Ami Bera

That makes sense. Who takes Lowenthal's old district, maybe his son Josh (he's from Huntington Beach) or Diedre Nguyen? Who takes my CA-41 (San Bernardino and Inyo)? Who takes the Temecula-Escondido district on your map?

Ken Calvert.

Nanette Barragan probably takes the Long Beach district.

Calvert doesn't live in your Escondido-Temecula district. Anyone else? Who takes my San Bernardino-Inyo district?

Olbernolte.

Calvert will just move. Or Issa makes a comeback.

[SevenEleven]

Barragan will take 44, Levin will take 49, Costa will take 20, defeating Nunes. Roybal-Allard's district will be a free for all.