OK, what happened in Maryland???

[SevenEleven]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

Arkansas does stick out as a sore thumb on the 2010 gubernatorial results map, and Beebe's result is even more impressive when you consider that Blanche Lincoln was getting destroyed by more than 20% on the exact same ballot! And Beebe managed to win every single county in the state.

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

[SevenEleven]

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

How, though? Just looking at simple data such as which party controlled how many govs offices each year is practically enough on its own:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

As soon as a party assumes control of the White House for multiple terms (sometimes just one), the balance of power in the states shifts against them. The only exception there is the 1930s, which saw a national repudiation of the Republican Party for its failures during the GD. The Solid South is also an exception, but mostly because it was a one-party apartheid region.

All elections have some exceptions depending on the trends of the time and unique local factors, but the white house party generally gets a lot less of them.

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

[SevenEleven]

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

Why do only those count and not incumbent governors, open seats, etc.? I think it’s pretty obvious that Walker wouldn’t have lost in a Clinton midterm, for instance.

I don't think that's obvious.

What makes so-called "wave" elections so impactful is the ability to wash out entrenched incumbents. You don't see that as much with gubernatorial elections because most voters can judge their governor on his or her own merits running the state, and with federal races that becomes much more complicated.

Gubernatorial elections tend to cycle more similarly to presidential elections, such that after being in power for a certain time, a state may go for something new. This is why candidates like Tim Pawlenty or Jodi Rell were able to win in 2006, but be replaced by the opposite party in 2010, despite national federal trends going the opposite way.

The fact that so few gubernatorial incumbents lose in so-called wave elections compared to their federal counterparts suggests that there are other dynamics at play. There's a lot of evidence that most voters can appreciate a Governor of an otherwise rejected political party at the federal level. States still have their natural leans, which is why incumbents defeated us a good metric to analyze.