Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[WMS]

You guys do realize that many Ukrainians, including women and children, are acting calmer than you are while they are huddled up in their bomb shelters with missiles flying overhead?

The same is true for the demoralized Russian 19-year-olds who are being forced to march in as cannon fodder.

Calm your tits

Things like this are always an opportunity for a certain type of person to show off how much they care about their 'values' by living vicariously through a conflict far, far away. It was exactly the same with the Afghanistan debacle seven months ago.

My, the arrogance and condescension coming from a Russia hack. No wonder you hold ‘values’ in contempt when you don’t have any.

[WMS]

Of course it isn’t, never thought it was, this board is mostly Americans. It’s closer to your bubble than mine.

You on the other hand needs to bring this as a reasoning that “backs you up” because you don’t know how to properly refute what I said. It’s really two weights, two measures logic.

I don’t need to lose time writing long-ass posts refuting fairytales, you in your conscience already knows what I’m saying is right, behind all this silly pride facade.

Have a good night.

Wrong on every count. To the ignore list with you.

[WMS]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

And I object to the hypocrisy and self-righteousness of it as described by BV. Especially given how almost every country south of the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere supports the Western stance. Just sticking to this hemisphere, he is in the good company of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jair Bolsonaro, and Donald Trump. Great job!
I call ‘em like I see ‘em and have absolutely no desire to go easy on tankies or any stripe.

[WMS]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

And I object to the hypocrisy and self-righteousness of it as described by BV. Especially given how almost every country south of the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere supports the Western stance. Just sticking to this hemisphere, he is in the good company of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jair Bolsonaro, and Donald Trump. Great job!
I call ‘em like I see ‘em and have absolutely no desire to go easy on tankies or any stripe.

Feel free to be critical of people's governments for any stance they might have. That can easily be done while adhering to civility when referring to fellow posters.

Should’ve told BV that, then. I’m not going to let sneering and condescension go unanswered by a Putinist or their fellow travelers.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1498500192454254593?s=21

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1498657002024837120?s=21

Good on the EU.

[WMS]

Re: NATO possible policy explanation; I report, you decide

I guess we’ll see.

[WMS]

One thing NATO could do is airdrop food, water, other civilian supplies, etc, to Ukrainians in need in besieged cities a la the Berlin Airlift. It would be 100% legal, wouldn’t be “attacking Russia” at all, would be a humanitarian mission, would help the Ukrainians under siege, and gives absolutely no grounds for Russia to object. For all those who would respond with OMG RUSSIANS, if the Russians do anything hostile towards this action they are responsible for initiating hostilities.

Also, if Josef F***ing Stalin wasn’t willing to wage WWIII over humanitarian aerial aid, why do you think Vladimir Putin would be?

jao

[WMS]

Gonna take this with a grain of salt until it is actually confirmed but if true, HOLY SH!T

https://mobile.twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1498715490197274624

Oh my gosh if true that’s amazing and a major blow to Russian morale.

I just thought about it. Those National Guard types are completely nuts and probably coated their ammunition and weapons with lard. Sucks for them, I guess.

Hell yeah, I love when the side I'm on engages in anti-Islamic bigotry, this is the good stuff.

Evil vs evil, perhaps? Not a shred of sympathy for Kadyrov’s bloodthirsty brutes.* Which doesn’t make this right, but sending these two groups at each other is a win-win.

*Who have committed most of their vile crimes against other Muslims, BTW.

[WMS]

Russia is now being distanced by even some of its strongest allies in Latin America per NYT report from a few minutes back.

Lots more but limited in quoting ability.

(Click on link below for full article)

"Some of Putin’s staunchest allies in Latin America are distancing themselves from Russia.

Russia’s Latin American allies have distanced themselves from President Vladimir V. Putin’s war in Ukraine, underscoring how even his staunchest diplomatic supporters appear concerned about the consequences of the cataclysmic invasion of a neighbor.

The governments of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela have all blamed the United States and NATO for stoking tensions in Ukraine and disregarding Russia’s security interests. But none has yet voiced direct support for Russia’s incursion.

Cuba, Bolivia and Venezuela, in official statements, have called for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. Bolivia’s former president, Evo Morales, who continues to play an important role in his country’s pro-Russian government, tweeted after the fighting began last Thursday, “War is never the solution.”

Similarly cautious diplomatic stances were taken by President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and his Nicaraguan counterpart, Daniel Ortega, both of whom spoke to Mr. Putin by telephone in the days before the invasion.

....

President Jair Bolsonaro visited Moscow just days before the invasion, and said Brazil stood in “solidarity” with Russia, though he didn’t clarify what that meant.

But in a news conference on Sunday, Mr. Bolsonaro said Brazil must remain neutral in the conflict because of the potential economic fallout, including Brazil’s dependence on Russia for fertilizers.

..."





https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/01/world/ukraine-russia-war/some-of-putins-staunchest-allies-in-latin-america-are-distancing-themselves-from-russia

But “muh Latin American perspective”

[WMS]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

You’re also being hyperbolic.

Stripping away everything else, there is a legitimate question to ask:

Is there anything Putin does or might do that would justify direct action against him?

Curious what people have to say.

[WMS]

Mexico won't sanction Russia in order to maintain good relations

exico will not join the U.S. and several European countries that are imposing economic sanctions on the Russian government in response to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Tuesday that his country will not place sanctions on Russia due to his desire to maintain "good relations with all governments in the world," according to Reuters.

The Mexican president also criticized what he considered to be censorship of Russian state-owned media, as Facebook, Twitter, Google, Reddit and YouTube have all taken steps in recent days to combat misinformation or propaganda regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including halting advertising revenue from being distributed to several Russian state-owned outlets.

"We're not going to take any kind of economic reprisal because we want to have good relations with all the governments in the world, and we want to be able to talk with the parties in conflict," López Obrador said when asked about his stance on the sanctions from other countries.

"We do not consider that it corresponds to us, and we think that the best thing is to promote dialogue to achieve peace," he was quoted by CNN.

The announcement from López Obrador came just a day after he and the Mexican tourism minister said that Mexico would not follow the EU in blocking Russian airlines from landing at airports in the country, according to Mexico News Daily. Over the weekend, Tourism Minister Miguel Torruco also posted a widely criticized series of tweets showcasing various statistics about Russian tourism in Mexico and the money that has come into the country related to tourism from Russia.

A bit more to that story.

Also not an opinion unanimous across Mexico.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/joannalamblooby/status/1498799550810628099?s=21

Not 100% confirmed but very interesting.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/joannalamblooby/status/1498799550810628099?s=21

Not 100% confirmed but very interesting.

What would the implications of this be? I'd speculate myself but this is kind of a weird thing to have happened.

If elements of the motherf***ing FSB (the tweet threads have more details) are secretly against Putin and his war, there may be hope for a regime change.

[WMS]

There hasn’t been much new in international reactions and I’m waiting for the UNGA 11th Special Session vote*, but a few bits:

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1498223682958856195?s=21

Two things of interest:
Qatar votes Yes, shaming the UAE.
Bolivia votes Yes, shaming tankies worldwide.

Also, The Philippines will vote to condemn Russia.

Also also, both Andorra and San Marino will participate in sanctions against Russia, in the case of Andorra this is the first time they’ve ever leveled sanctions against a country.



*Although the words “Russia is isolated” keep popping up. Fancy that.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1498834457285087235?s=21

Never forget.

https://twitter.com/govtrack/status/1498758438775664641?s=21

WTF.

[WMS]

Here are the minutes from the first day of the United Nations General Assembly Eleventh Special Session. Lots of interesting statements made!

[WMS]

This is vital information for the Scarsdale Currency Corporation!

https://twitter.com/infoalternat/status/1498987674337689600?s=21

[WMS]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

Intentionally attacking another country’s embassy or consulate could be considered a casus belli. At the very least, even if Russia didn’t deliberately target it they didn’t care if it got hit.

That’s different from the inevitable whataboutism certain to be posted by - oh look he did it while I was tying this - compucomp over the 1999 Chinese embassy getting hit in the Kosovo war (and of course China supported Slobodan Milosevic) - which was not intentional.

[WMS]

IT JUST KEEPS HAPPENING

https://mobile.twitter.com/UkraineRussiaW3/status/1499080105250869250

THAT’LL take care of those thieving crows!

[WMS]

I believe Eritrea also supported the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Eritrea has a history of invading its neighbours.

Honestly atleast they aren't hypocritical.

Or, maybe, just maybe, Eritrea voted that way because the Biden Administration sanctioned Eritrea over its hideous human rights abuses in Tigray over the past few years?

[WMS]

Much to unpack from the UNGA vote, but…

Latin America and the Caribbean:
Yes: 28
Antigua & Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts-Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay.

Abstain or Cowards who didn’t vote at all to hide their Abstain: 5
Bolivia (finally made up their damn minds), Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Venezuela.

85% versus 15%.

I believe there’s a Latin American and the Caribbean consensus on this.

[WMS]

Anyway my brain had two thoughts today.

First, Putin's really trying to sell this as his own Great Patriotic War, taking on all the trappings of the man protecting the rodina or whatever.

Second, while Putin has been able to carve out a niche for himself and is likely floundering badly in trying to get Ukraine into said niche, it's perfectly possible that in the future of Russian soft power is to align itself with European institutions. "Rebrand itself" as being in accord with Western Europe and European ideals. This would have to be post-Putin, but it could eventually allow them to undo the PR damage they've dealt themselves in this war for good and possibly become the strongest player in European institutions.

Key word is: may. Lord knows what will happen to Putin, or how Russia will orient itself over the coming decades.

If Ukraine is an EU member (potentially possible if Russia plays its hand bad enough in this war),  the Russian elite might in fact decide it has to follow its Slavic neighbors into hirtherto Western institutions in order to maintain their relevance on the world stage.

If you think either of these sound like crazy thoughts, please be blunt about it. My mind just wonders what impact this war could have on long-term geopolitical alignments.

Putin is certainly trying to do that. That’s part of why NATO isn’t directly intervening.

I would like nothing more than for Russia to purge itself of the triune poisons of chauvinism, oligarchy, and autocracy, and finally join the community of democratic nations. I have no idea how or if that’s possible.

[WMS]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

Glad to see I wasn’t the only one noticing that pattern.

[WMS]

Damnit I was thinking about doing my more detailed guesswork clear and cogent analysis later.

I personally can divide the yellows into scrupulous and unscrupulous neutrals, but haven’t got every single one down yet.

But a few examples:
Mongolia is a scrupulous neutral despite being a democracy because holy crap look at their geographic position. The ex-communists running the place make this an iffy call but in this case I think any Mongolian government would be neutral.
Bolivia is an unscrupulous neutral because of their last-minute backstab on this contrasting with their recent previous vote on the U.N. Human Rights Council supporting the Ukrainian position. Also there is not a consensus in Bolivia over this, or amongst the Latin American Left. Voting for the resolution like most of Latin America would’ve been a wise move. But muh Evo Morales, I guess.
Kazakhstan is a scrupulous neutral both for this vote and for having the spine to tell Putin no to his request for troops so soon after having the current government put in power by Putin. Plus they’re between Russia and China geographically.
Namibia is an unscrupulous neutral because they are a democracy that should really be opposed to what Russia is doing based on their own experience under apartheid South Africa’s rule. Maybe they’re still doing what South Africa (another disappointment) wants. Or maybe it’s some knee-jerk anti-Western sentiment from their ruling party.

I’m sure there’s Russian or Chinese influence involved somehow.

[WMS]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

Well that explains Laos, which is basically a colony of Vietnam.

And perhaps that explains Cambodia and Thailand voting Yes, because while neither of them gives a crap about human rights, they care very much about not becoming dominated by Vietnam, China, or India. As I staunchly believe and have said recently, every time I read or hear about someone getting off to “the BRICS will overthrow the Western world order” I immediately look to their neighbors, who somehow aren’t enthusiastic about that…