Texas Gubernatorial Race

[WMS]

Kinky, and I have a good feeling. I'm not even going to bother arguing with the thick headed pseduo-realists who are so confident in Perry.

Given your contempt for Strayhorn, you might not like this next part...if Strayhorn implodes, just where do you think her voters are going to go, Vlad? And will that make Perry stronger or weaker?

Oh, and I see the classic Internet forum left-libertarian bias is fully in effect

[WMS]

Kinky, and I have a good feeling. I'm not even going to bother arguing with the thick headed pseduo-realists who are so confident in Perry.

Given your contempt for Strayhorn, you might not like this next part...if Strayhorn implodes, just where do you think her voters are going to go, Vlad? And will that make Perry stronger or weaker?

Oh, and I see the classic Internet forum left-libertarian bias is fully in effect

Well, Strayhorn has already imploded in my mind(she has gone from within 9 points of Perry to last place in the polls) and as a result Kinky has done nothing but close the gap with Perry. I think Strayhorn has about as many independent supporters as she does Republican supporters. The problem for Perry is that the "Strayhorn Republicans" aren't budging, while her independent base is going over to support the black horse campaign of Kinky Friedman. While this isn't weakening Perry, it's giving Kinky a strong boost...perhaps strong enough.

Statistical tie with Kinky and Bell, bub. Not quite an implosion

Well, while I really would like an in-depth look at sources of support...oh, wait, jimrtex posted, there we go

Her money is coming from trial lawyers, teachers unions, and other groups who traditionally fund Democrats.  One backer is Tony Sanchez, the self-funded Democratic gubernatorial candidate from 2002.  They're backing Strayhorn becase they consider Bell hopeless.  I don't think they can take their money back, but having already made a decision to not waste money on Bell, will they give him any money?  Bell is campaigning for Strayhorn's supporters, but I don't know that much of her supporters would vote Democratic in the first place.

Her support is much stronger among women than men.  Someone who will vote for a candidate because they are a woman isn't going to switch to one of the male candidates.  And they are also aren't going to think that it is kookish to be complaining about not being permitted to use "Grandma" on the ballot, even though she has never run as "Grandma" before, and hasn't used the name in her professional/public life.

So I doubt that she will drop to single digits.

Ah, thanks for the analysis.

My point was...I don't think the Strayhorn Republicans would switch to Friedman or Bell. And that means Perry wins, period.

And I agree with Blue Dog Dem and M on this race.

[WMS]

Kinky, and I have a good feeling. I'm not even going to bother arguing with the thick headed pseduo-realists who are so confident in Perry.

Given your contempt for Strayhorn, you might not like this next part...if Strayhorn implodes, just where do you think her voters are going to go, Vlad? And will that make Perry stronger or weaker?

Oh, and I see the classic Internet forum left-libertarian bias is fully in effect

Well, Strayhorn has already imploded in my mind(she has gone from within 9 points of Perry to last place in the polls) and as a result Kinky has done nothing but close the gap with Perry. I think Strayhorn has about as many independent supporters as she does Republican supporters. The problem for Perry is that the "Strayhorn Republicans" aren't budging, while her independent base is going over to support the black horse campaign of Kinky Friedman. While this isn't weakening Perry, it's giving Kinky a strong boost...perhaps strong enough.

Statistical tie with Kinky and Bell, bub. Not quite an implosion

Last poll I saw had her 2 points behind Kinky and 1 behind Bell...regardless of how close this is, it still puts her in last place, bub.

I think you and most others are being a little thick headed on the matter, to be 100% honest. This however is not abnormal given the nature of this race.

And I think you are letting your enthusiasm for Kinky run away with you, to be 100% honest. I actually expect Perry to win this race, albeit not by very inspiring margins. C'mon, this is Texas - do you really think someone with liberal social positions is going to win here?