Bernalillo County in 2000:
Gore 48.68% (99461)
Bush 46.62% (95249)
Nader 4.05% (8274)
Browne 0.35% (713)
Others 0.30% (622)
Factors:
Nader swing to Kerry...maybe 2%
Growth in housing; from multi-family to single-family - gain for Bush (I've seen the registration numbers, OK?) guess 1-2%
Social Conservatism of Hispanic Population...possible gain to Bush, depending on issue importance at election time (uncertain)
New Mexico predicted swing to Bush...2.5% to Bush
So...honestly, flip a bloody coin here...
Bush 48.70%
Kerry 48.60%
Nader 2.05%
Libertarians 0.35%
Others 0.30%
Final results determined sometime on the day AFTER Election Day due to heavy absentee voting...as usual.
