yet another...'reagan dies' scenario.

[Lincoln Republican]

Interesting story Walter.  I am looking forward to future installments.

[Lincoln Republican]

Walter, any further installments coming in this interesting story?

Although, I would ask the question, why would Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor give up her lifetime Supreme Court appointment to take an uncertain run at becoming Vice President?  Even if sucessful in 1984, she could find herself out of office by 1988.   

 

[Lincoln Republican]

Many in the Republican party greet the Quayle nomination with skepticism.  Many do not believe that Senator Quayle possesses the stature or the qualities required of a Vice Presidential candidate in the 1980s.  Others simply believe he is too young, and not experienced enough to take on this national role. 

To add to the confusion in Republican ranks, Senator Dan Quayle, believing that he will not be the asset to the ticket that O'Connor will require in a Vice Presidential nominee, and after discussing the matter with O'Connor in private, voluntarily withdraws from the ticket after three days, stating as the reason, quite legitimately, his young family requires more of his attention at this point in their lives, and that, therefore, he would not be able to devote the time required to run as a candidate on a national ticket.

Sandra Day O'Connor calls a news conference, stating she appreciates the fact that Senator Quayle wants to be able to spend the appropriate time with his young family at this time in their lives, and that "our children are the future of America."

O'Connor names Governor James Thompson of Illinois as the Reublican Vice Presidential nominee. Governor Thompson stands beside O'Connor as she makes the announcement.  O'Connor and the Republican team know Governor Thompson to be a political powerhouse in the midwest, a crucial area for the Republicans in the election.  They as well know Governor Thompson to be a candidate of substance, and a political heavyweight.

Governor Thompson states "I am honored to be asked to be the Vice Presidential nominee, and to have the opportunity to serve with such a distinguished and capable public servant as Sandra Day O'Connor.  Now, let's get this campaign on the road." 

Now, both tickets have changed their Vice Presidential nominees, so they are both on an equal footing in that respect.        

[Lincoln Republican]

It is now October 19, with a mere 18 days of campaigning left until the November 6 election.

Both teams, Republicans O'Connor and Thompson and Democrats Robb and Udall, are campaigning full out.  It is late in the campaign.  There is no time to lose.

All four candidates are fanning out across the country.  O'Connor goes to the southeast, Thompson goes to the midwest, Robb goes to the west coast, and Udall goes to the northeast.  Three days later, the candidates are hitting the crucial swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, California, Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon.   

[Lincoln Republican]

In one of the closest elections in history, Sandra Day O'Connor makes history in becoming the first woman President of the United States.  She was able to make political mileage by campaigning on her support for the policies of Ronald Reagan and Bob Dole.  The Republican ticket gained
a great deal of support from the public who wanted to see the Reagan  legacy continued, and some of Dole's policies put into practice. 

Republican Vice Presidential candidate Jim Thompson is given a great deal of credit for putting the Republican ticket over the top in Ohio, which was very close, and in carrying Illinois.  This made the difference between victory and defeat.

Chuck Robb was successful in leading the Democrats in increasing their support in the south signifigantly from the 1980 election.

Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Mo Udall helped Democrats increase their strength in the west, winning New Mexico, however, not enough to tip any solid Republican states into the Democratic column.

California was close, however, in the end, California narrowly went for O'Connor, in part due the memory of Ronald Reagan.

O'Connor/Thompson        271 EV  50.6% PV
Robb/Udall                       267 EV  49.4% PV       

[Lincoln Republican]

Good question.  Quite possibly.  One would think that a candidate after losing so narrowly, both in the EV and in the PV, may have the upper hand for their party nomination next time around.  Of course, one has only to look at Al Gore, losing ever so narrowly in the disputed 2000 election, not a candidate in 2004.

My understanding of the scandal Robb was involved in did not come into public view until 1991, when Robb himself went public with it.  Though, perhaps there may have been rumors circulating prior to that time, which would have had a detrimental effect on another nomination for him.

Two in a row candidacies by the losing candidate do not usually pay off at the ballot box the second time around.  Tom Dewey 1944, 1948, not successful, Adlai Stevenson 1952, 1956, not successful.  These candidates did not do as well as Robb in this "what if" scenario, I know, however, I don't think that would make a tremendous difference for the nomintion.

Partys usually want to move on from the defeat, and run a new candidate the next time around.  So, my own opinion and view is that Robb would not be the nominee in 1988, even given the narrowness of his loss in 1984.