yet another...'reagan dies' scenario.

[WalterMitty]

in march 1982, exactly one year after survivng being shot, president reagan dies of a massive stroke in the white house.

vice president eorge bush immediately takes the oath of office.  in his oval office speech, bush reassures the country that he will pursue the reagan agenda to the fullest.  in the same address, he announces that he intends to nominate sec of state alexander 'im in charge' haig to be vice president.  two days later the senate confirms haig 100-0.

throughout the spring of 1982, bush enjoys lofty approval ratings (70% +) and is able to get many of reagan's legislative agenda through congress.

many potential 84 democrat challengers, including senator john glenn, young upstart gary hart and jesse jackson, announce they wont be running for president.

by new years day 1983, president bush appears to be gliding to an easy election in 1984.

however, on jan 22, 1983, the same night the state of the union address is  scheduled, moscow announces that have captured 4 american cia spies, who, according to the ussr, were snooping around nuclear facilities for the past 5 years.

the ussr immediately calls off all ongoing arms talks withe the us and recalls its ambassador from washington.

more later...

[WalterMitty]

president bush immediately calls for the release of the five 'hostages'.  vice president haig, always the hawk, cause the hostage taking an 'act of war', but  a spokesman retracts that statement later in the day.

the american public is also outraged by the act.  the public rallies around bush, his approval rating a week after the episode approachs 75%.

 a video surfaces of the fice hostages, blindfolded and obviously pale and thin.  they are guarded by armed soviet soldiers.  the public is outraged by this tape.  most people want president bush to set a firm deadline for the release of these hostage.  bush hesitates.  he want go so far as to declare a firm deadline.  he only speaks of the possibility of 'grave consequences' if the hostages arent released in a safe and timely manner.

the public, disappointed in bush's lack of resolve, begins to disapprove of his handling of the crisis.  a month into the ordeal, his approval rating plummets to 45%

on march 3, 1983, america wakes up to good news.  the hostages have been released.  the reverend jesse jackson had been secretly meeting with the russians, negotiating a sage release. 

the public is grateful to jackson.  he immediately becomes a hero.  bush meanwhile, sees his approval rating drop even more.  he is seen by most americans as an ineffectual leader.

more later...

[WalterMitty]

in the fall of 1983, still riding a wave of strong public support, jesse jackson announces his campaign for president.  he basically camps out in iowa attempting to connect with the rural, white population.

president bush never recovers from the hostage incident.  in the fall of 1983, his approval numbers are below 50%.  every head to head poll of bush vs. jackson shows jackson with at least a 10 point lead.

in an christmas address to the nation, president bush announces that he will not seek election in his own right in 1984.  he doesnt cite his low approval numbers as the reason for h is decision.  instead, he says he never intended to run.  he only consider himself a place sitter for reagan until an election could be held in 1984.

with bush's shcoking decision, several republicans immediately enter the race including vice president haig, us senator bob dole, us senator john warner and governor pete dupont of delaware.

on the democrat side, most would-be challengers are scared off by jackson huge popularity.  however, conservative democrat, governor chuck robb of virginia, decides to enter the contest as a more 'centrist' alternative to the reverend.

[Lincoln Republican]

Interesting story Walter.  I am looking forward to future installments.

[WalterMitty]

senator robert dole jumps out to a huge lead in iowa, due to his name recognition and regional appeal.  the only republican within striking distance is vice president haig, who is being dragged down by his repeated foot-in-mouth comments and by his position in an unpopular administration.

jackson still eads on the democrat side, but many rural iowans are attracted to govenor chuck robb, especially as jackson's fame from the hostage crisis begins to dim a bit.

however, a couple of weeks before the iowa caucus, jackson confidently predicts *at least* a 20 point win.  needless to say, that kind of boasting fires up the robb supporters.

the day of the caucus is cold and snowy, but turnout is still high.

on the republican side the results are:

senator dole: 60%
vice president haig: 25%
senator warner: 10%
governor dupont: 5%

warner and dupont concede defeat and drop out of the race, both immediately endorse senator dole.  haig vows to fight on to new hampshire.

on the democrat side, jackson doesnt live up to his 20 point win prediction:

reverend jackson: 55%
governor robb: 40%
lyndon larouche: 5%

the media instantly gives robb more attention.  his better than expected finish, catapults him to a tie in new hampshire, according to opinion polls taken after the iowa caucus.

jackson attempts to declare victory, but robb clearly gained the most momentum.

[Alcon]

Go go gadget LaRouche.

[WalterMitty]

in new hampshire, haig harshly attacks dole, playing on the granite state's fear of taxes.  he insists dole is certain to raise taxes if elected.  he questions dole's conservative credentials on almost every issue.

dole takes the high road.  he sticks to a positive  message.  he insists he is the rightful heir to what ronald reagan started.

on the democrat side, robb continues to ride high in the public opinion polls.  some surveys have him as much as 10 points a head of jackson. 

jackson, facing a certain defeat in nh, decides not to contest the state, but instead diverts his resources to the south for the upcoming super tuesday contests.

on primary day in new hampshire, vice president haig has a surprisingly strong finish.  dole wins the contest with 54%, haig finishes with 42%

chuck robb cruises to an uncontested victory with 65% of the vote, to jackson's 25%. former vice president walter mondale received 8% from a write in campaign.

march 6, 1984: the vermont primary.

little attention was payed to this primary, as most candidates headed down south after new hampshire.

dole trounced haig in vt, 80-15, with bush receiving many write in votes.

robb dispatched jackson 85-5.

march 13, 1984: alabama, florida, georgia, massachusetts, rhode island, nevada, washington, oklahoma.

most attention is on alabama, florida and georgia.

jackson is relying on his black base to catapult him to some much needed victories.  robb is playing up his southern credentials and trying to get white moderates to the polls.

most republican attention is on the south also.  haig is emphasising his military background and continuing to question dole's conservative credentials.

the results were as follows:

alabama:
jackson 52%
robb: 47%

haig 58%
dole 39%

florida:
robb: 55%
jackson: 42%

dole: 53%
haig: 45%

georgia:
jackson: 51%
robb: 46%

dole 50%
haig 48%

dole and robb both won the remaining states on that primary day, leving jackson and haig with big decisions to make on whether to carry on.

more later.

[WalterMitty]

ok let me speed things up a little bit...

dole hangs on to win the republican nomination and robb edges out jackson to win the democrat nod.

attention now turns to who the candidates will pick as a running mate.

the public views dole as kind of old and boring.  while most of the public sees robb as a young, fresh face.

with this in mind, dole senses that he should make a bold pick as vp to help energize the public.

some of the commonly floated names are: senator john warner (va),  governor jim thompson (il), and former senator ed brooke (ma)

reports form inside the dole camp indicate that dole prefers brooke.  however, at age 65, brooke is older than dole.

all of the political pundits speculate that brooke will be the choice, when dole schedules a july 4 press conference in russell kansas to announce the choice.

however, everyone is tunned when word leaks out  3 hours before the press conference that supreme court justice sandra day o'conner will be the vp pick.

[Lincoln Republican]

Walter, any further installments coming in this interesting story?

Although, I would ask the question, why would Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor give up her lifetime Supreme Court appointment to take an uncertain run at becoming Vice President?  Even if sucessful in 1984, she could find herself out of office by 1988.   

 

[WalterMitty]

the public is extrememly enthusiastic over dole's choice of o'conner.  most opinion polls taken after the selection show dole running 15-20 points ahead of robb (who has yet to announce a running mate)

as the democrat convention starts in late july, robb has still not announced a running mate.  democrats expect him to make a bold choice to counter the selection of o'conner.  being a moderate southerner, northeast liberals also want robb to pick someone more liberal than himself.  robb's defeated primary opponent, jesse jackson, threatens to stage a walk out of the convention if robb does not pick a minority for the number 2 slot (jackson was certainly thinking that he would be the best choice)


the day before the convention opens, robb announces long time texas congressman from san antonio, henry gonzalez as his running mate.  gonazalez seems to have the jesse jackson seal of approval, and his extremely liberal voting record appeases the liberals in the party.  however, the public at large seems to be completely undwer-whelmed at the gonzalez selection.  he is aged (68) and rather boring.

most of the public thought of the gonzalez pick as an affirmative action selection,  nevertheless, he was nominated and the robb/gonzalez ticket hit the campaign trail in early august.

[WalterMitty]

doubts about henry gonzalez only grow after media outlets start questioning his temperment.  democrats get nervous, when, instead of a bump from the convention, most polls showing robb losing ground to dole.  the gallup poll taken immediately after the convention shows dole/o'conner leading robb/gonzalez 55-35.  the poll also shows dole trouncing robb in all of the 'battleground' states

the firestorm of criticism against gonzalez reaches a peak when nbc news reports that earlier in 1984, congressman gonzalez punched a man in the face after the man called him a 'communist'.

it becomes clear that gonzalez is a big-time drag on the ticket.  on the morning of august 19, 1984,  gonzalez calls a press conference in san antonio and drops off the ticket. 

robb must act quick to name a new running mate and rescue a campaign that is on lfe support.  many prominent democrats urge him to tap former vice president walter mondale, who has indicated he would accept.

on august 25, 1984, robb announces the selection of congressman morris (mo) udall of arizona has his new running mate.  udall is a former presidential candidate himself (76) and is noted for his good humor.  he has a strong track record in environmental issues and is popular in his native southwest.  being a mormon may help the ticket in the rocky mountain states. 

with the selection of udall, robb's numbers improve somewhat.  during the last week of august the latest gallup poll shows dole/o'conner leading robb/udall 53-40.

[WalterMitty]

finally the campaign swings into high gear.  the robb/udall team starts to cut into dole/o'conner's massive lead.  the promise a 'new day for america'

in late september the polls have narrowed to an average 4-5 point dole lead.  robb is making inroads in the crucial battleground states of pennsylvania, ohio, michigan and even colorado.

but suddenly on october 2, 1984, tragedy strikes the nation yet again.  senator robert dole suffers a massive stroke while campaigning in missouri.  dole survives but is left in a comatose state.

the republican party acts quickly to make sandra day o'conner its nominee.  a visibly upset o'conner accepts the nomination and promises victory for dole in november. 

both sides observe a two week truce in campaigning.  after the campaign resumes, o'conner names young indiana senator dan quayle as her running mate.

ill leaving the ending of this story up to you guys....

[Lincoln Republican]

Many in the Republican party greet the Quayle nomination with skepticism.  Many do not believe that Senator Quayle possesses the stature or the qualities required of a Vice Presidential candidate in the 1980s.  Others simply believe he is too young, and not experienced enough to take on this national role. 

To add to the confusion in Republican ranks, Senator Dan Quayle, believing that he will not be the asset to the ticket that O'Connor will require in a Vice Presidential nominee, and after discussing the matter with O'Connor in private, voluntarily withdraws from the ticket after three days, stating as the reason, quite legitimately, his young family requires more of his attention at this point in their lives, and that, therefore, he would not be able to devote the time required to run as a candidate on a national ticket.

Sandra Day O'Connor calls a news conference, stating she appreciates the fact that Senator Quayle wants to be able to spend the appropriate time with his young family at this time in their lives, and that "our children are the future of America."

O'Connor names Governor James Thompson of Illinois as the Reublican Vice Presidential nominee. Governor Thompson stands beside O'Connor as she makes the announcement.  O'Connor and the Republican team know Governor Thompson to be a political powerhouse in the midwest, a crucial area for the Republicans in the election.  They as well know Governor Thompson to be a candidate of substance, and a political heavyweight.

Governor Thompson states "I am honored to be asked to be the Vice Presidential nominee, and to have the opportunity to serve with such a distinguished and capable public servant as Sandra Day O'Connor.  Now, let's get this campaign on the road." 

Now, both tickets have changed their Vice Presidential nominees, so they are both on an equal footing in that respect.        

[Lincoln Republican]

It is now October 19, with a mere 18 days of campaigning left until the November 6 election.

Both teams, Republicans O'Connor and Thompson and Democrats Robb and Udall, are campaigning full out.  It is late in the campaign.  There is no time to lose.

All four candidates are fanning out across the country.  O'Connor goes to the southeast, Thompson goes to the midwest, Robb goes to the west coast, and Udall goes to the northeast.  Three days later, the candidates are hitting the crucial swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, California, Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon.   

[Lincoln Republican]

In one of the closest elections in history, Sandra Day O'Connor makes history in becoming the first woman President of the United States.  She was able to make political mileage by campaigning on her support for the policies of Ronald Reagan and Bob Dole.  The Republican ticket gained
a great deal of support from the public who wanted to see the Reagan  legacy continued, and some of Dole's policies put into practice. 

Republican Vice Presidential candidate Jim Thompson is given a great deal of credit for putting the Republican ticket over the top in Ohio, which was very close, and in carrying Illinois.  This made the difference between victory and defeat.

Chuck Robb was successful in leading the Democrats in increasing their support in the south signifigantly from the 1980 election.

Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Mo Udall helped Democrats increase their strength in the west, winning New Mexico, however, not enough to tip any solid Republican states into the Democratic column.

California was close, however, in the end, California narrowly went for O'Connor, in part due the memory of Ronald Reagan.

O'Connor/Thompson        271 EV  50.6% PV
Robb/Udall                       267 EV  49.4% PV       

[WalterMitty]

nice ending winfield.

would robb have become the automatic frontrunner in 1988?  dont forget, he had a gary hart type moment himself.

[Lincoln Republican]

Good question.  Quite possibly.  One would think that a candidate after losing so narrowly, both in the EV and in the PV, may have the upper hand for their party nomination next time around.  Of course, one has only to look at Al Gore, losing ever so narrowly in the disputed 2000 election, not a candidate in 2004.

My understanding of the scandal Robb was involved in did not come into public view until 1991, when Robb himself went public with it.  Though, perhaps there may have been rumors circulating prior to that time, which would have had a detrimental effect on another nomination for him.

Two in a row candidacies by the losing candidate do not usually pay off at the ballot box the second time around.  Tom Dewey 1944, 1948, not successful, Adlai Stevenson 1952, 1956, not successful.  These candidates did not do as well as Robb in this "what if" scenario, I know, however, I don't think that would make a tremendous difference for the nomintion.

Partys usually want to move on from the defeat, and run a new candidate the next time around.  So, my own opinion and view is that Robb would not be the nominee in 1988, even given the narrowness of his loss in 1984.