Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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Posts: 14,348
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2005, 01:14:33 PM » |
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« Edited: November 19, 2005, 07:57:14 PM by Winfield »
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The methodology used
Goldwater wins all the states he won in 1964. Goldwater's margins in AL-38.90, GA-8.25, LA-13.63, MS-74.28, SC-17.79, were substantial enough in the actual 1964 election to warrant winning them in this scenario. AZ-0.99, although extremely close in 1964, being Goldwater's home state, was as well very likely to go for Goldwater in this scenario.
For the rest of the Goldwater states, these are the states that voted for Nixon in 1960 by a large, or comfortable enough margin, as well, given these states Presidential voting histories, that I believe Goldwater would have won them in this scenario. ID-7.57, IN-10.43, IA-13.49, KS-21.35, NE-24.14, ND-10.90, OK-18.04, SD-16.43, UT-9.64, WY-10.03.
Although in 1960 Nixon won ME-14.10, NH-6.84, VT-17.30, I believe these states would have been won by Kennedy, as I do not believe Goldwater would have the necessary appeal in these New England states to win them, even in 1964. That, combined with the fact that Kennedy was from New England, is why I believe Kennedy would have won these states. A different, more moderate Republican candidate in 1964, would likely have won ME, NH and VT, but not Goldwater.
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