Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[cinyc]

This will serve as a thread to discuss the 2020-29 population estimates.

Census will release the July 1, 2020 County and other estimates on Tuesday, May 4. I'm expecting that they will not be using real 2020 Census as a base, but 2010 instead. It will be interesting to see how, if at all they handle the differences between those estimates and the real census results, especially in the Northeast.

[cinyc]

As expected, the July 1, 2020 county population estimates came out yesterday. Here's a map of the 7/1/19-7/1/20 county percentage population change:




As expected, the estimates used 2010 Census as base, not 2020, meaning NY's count is "only" off by 800K+. Every NYC borough supposedly lost population year-over-year. Take that with a huge grain of salt.

[cinyc]

Here's the 2010EB-2020 Map:



Note I've used the April 1, 2010 estimates base instead of actual census as base, which accounts for annexations and the like (a bigger deal at the muni level than county level, usually).

Suffolk County, NY is in the top 11 of raw pop losers according to these estimates. It might provide the key for figuring out why the 2020 state estimates were such a miss for NY. If it actually gained a lot more, especially on the East End (Hamptons and environs), there might be something to the double counting theory. If it actually lost pop while Queens (which also supposedly lost pop, albeit at a lower rate) gained big, the downward revising of international migration figures theory fits better.

We'll have to wait until August to see.

[cinyc]

Interactive versions of these maps here:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/2020-county-estimates

[cinyc]

These are the Rhode Island estimated components of change. Where did the extra people come from?

Year	Net	Births	Deaths	Net	International	Domestic	Migration
2010	1024	2871	2330	-37	1704	-1171	533
2011	-165	10998	9755	-112	4585	-6005	-1420
2012	1064	11006	9315	-103	4507	-5087	-580
2013	667	10873	9631	-139	3938	-4474	-536
2014	951	10726	9697	-166	3607	-3574	33
2015	375	10874	10077	-184	4654	-5027	-373
2016	930	10975	9828	-240	4242	-4436	-194
2017	-1262	10577	10043	-205	2282	-4048	-1766
2018	2784	10737	10039	-179	4631	-2522	2109
2019	-1180	10459	9996	-196	1295	-2950	-1655
2020	-1033	10447	10470	-248	1193	-2234	-1041

New York COVID refugees? Or maybe they misestimated immigration from places like the Cape Verdes?

[cinyc]

The July 1, 2020 incorporated place estimates are scheduled to be released this Thursday. Like the county estimates, 2010 Census will be the base for these estimates.

[cinyc]

IMHO, I feel like we should have different threads for population estimates based on Census 2010 (2010 - 2020) and population estimates based on Census 2020 (2021 - 2029). Grouping in these 2020 estimates which are based on the 2010 census results with the future 2021  - 2029 census estimates (which will be based on the 2020 census results) doesn't sit well with me.

To be fair, we didn't know for sure whether the estimates would be based on 2010 or 2020 census when I posted this. Plus, the old thread says -19, as it should for a normal census year.

[cinyc]

Interactive maps of the July 1, 2020 population change estimates are here:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/05/31/2020-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map/

[cinyc]

Interactive maps of the July 1, 2020 population change estimates are here:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/05/31/2020-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map/

Interesting map. Doral (which has gone from 45K to 65K people) stands out heavily from its neighbors in Western Miami-Dade, presumably due to increased immigration from Venezuela over the last few years. Hialeah was the Cuban hotspot of Miami-Dade (immigration from which has now slowed greatly) and it looks like Doral's gonna be the Venezuelan hotspot. I wonder how much longer it'll grow for.

Will you make another map after the final census results are released and the intercensal results come out? I think it'd be neat to compare.

Data willing, yes.

[cinyc]

December 21, 2021 is the most likely release date of the 2021 Vintage Population Estimates

State or county level?

[cinyc]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

[cinyc]

Census' 7/1/23 city estimates are out today. Some highlights of the 2022-23 changes:

-NYC lost 77K, Chicago 8.2K and L.A. 1.8K. This is bad, but not as bad as prior years this decade.
-Detroit gained a little population from 2022-23 for the first time since the 1950s.
-Jacksonville, FL leapfrogged over Austin, TX into 10th place.
-The top growing cities (numeric terms, >20K) were San Antonio and Fort Worth. Most of the rest of the Top 15, except DC, were in the Sun Belt.
-The top growing cities (% terms, >20K) were mainly Texas exurbs. You probably haven’t heard of most of them.

I have a map on my website detailing the changes here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/pop-change/23-town-pop-change