Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[cinyc]

So there won't be a Virginia needle next week. That sucks.

But we will have an interactive precinct (and more) livemap on RRHElections, data willing.

[cinyc]

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

A lot of Youngkin's best polls have been from unreliable outlets with shoddy methodology, and the ones that weren't from unreliable outlets (mostly Monmouth, which is usually methodologically rigorous) have had some modeling quirks, small sample sizes, and a history of badly misreading Virginia.

All the polls are pretty much saying the same thing, though. It's a close race.