Alaskans will vote on a ranked-choice voting system this November

[cinyc]

Passage/failure is going to be really close (within 1%).

My models say it should pass by 1.5 to 2 points. We'll see.

Yes closed to within 2,000 votes after tonight's early count dump, but a lot of them were from D-leaning HDs.

There's a fairly strong correllation - r^2 of 0.89 or so - between the D-R registration advantage and the absentees reported by HD so far. So I have a number of ways to calculate this. As I said, all ways point to a RCV win here.

[cinyc]

Passage/failure is going to be really close (within 1%).

My models say it should pass by 1.5 to 2 points. We'll see.

Yes closed to within 2,000 votes after tonight's early count dump, but a lot of them were from D-leaning HDs.

There's a fairly strong correllation - r^2 of 0.89 or so - between the D-R registration advantage and the absentees reported by HD so far. So I have a number of ways to calculate this. As I said, all ways point to a RCV win here.

Today's dump was the strongest yet for Yes, but it included HD-17 and HD-18 in central Anchorage, HD-32 Miscellaneous, Et Cetera, and Other in Southern Alaska (that is a really weird district - what are the population splits?)

Are the only districts still out HD-13, HD-22, HD-36, HD-37, HD-38, and HD-39, or are there some incomplete?

I'm guessing that HD-13, HD-22, and HD-36 will have about 3000 votes each with 60% Yes which will about close the gap. How many mail ballots in HD-37, HD-38, and HD-39. If the 633 from HD-40 is complete, then not too many. In all the tiny villages it is a lot easier to vote in person than to mail a ballot in - the polling place may have longer hours than the post office does, and they may not have residential delivery.

I'm still inclined to think it will be under 1%.

Here's my estimate of what ABSENTEES are out as of right now:



40 is not complete. Some of it is counted by the Nome office; some of it is counted by Fairbanks. Aleutians 37 has 1,519; Bethel 38 has 1,135; Nome 39 has 592 and Barrow/Kotzebue 40 has 400 (probably in parts closer to Fairbanks than Nome).

The big district yet to report is 31 on the Southern Kenai Peninsula. Its absentees are poised to go 57% yes according to my model - which was off on 32. 13's absentees are expected to go 55% Yes.

So far, the absentees have only gone No in uber-Republican HDs 8 and 30.

There also are some early and Questioned/provisional votes to be counted, but those have been more or less been breaking even so far.

[cinyc]

No sooner do I post that then another 11.5K or so votes dropped, and BM 2 took the lead.

Here's the revised estimated what's left charts. The numbers are rough, so put a little bit of a range on it.

[cinyc]

Was there a release of number of absentee ballots?

After the second dump on Thursday included HD-13, 22, 31; that left HD-36, 37, 38, and 39 as the only districts with no absentee ballots reported,

So were the remaining ballots the last-arriving or why weren't they counted?

For example, HD-24 had 2435 votes counted in one big batch, but you show 504 more ballots to be counted.

They're counting in batches, up to a certain date received. The remaining absentee ballots outside of 36-39 and maybe 29 are probably late arrivals.

[cinyc]

No sooner do I post that then another 11.5K or so votes dropped, and BM 2 took the lead.

Here's the revised estimated what's left charts. The numbers are rough, so put a little bit of a range on it.

Why are the numbers different for districts like HD-29 (+200), HD-37 (+51), HD-14 (+54), HD-38 (+13).

I was looking at the roll-off to determine if there was any difference based on mode of voting. Based on a small sample (HD-15), it appears not. (4.8% vs 4.9%). Once upon a time, it was conventional wisdom to vote against any proposition you didn't understand. But I think over time that may have changed. Those more susceptible to persuasion might vote Yes to go along with the crowd ("If I vote Yes, others will like me").

There was likely XX% of voters who had no idea that there would be any referendums on the ballot, let alone what they were about, this is true of everything but President ("What is this "Senator" about. I wonder if this Don Young is new. I've never heard of him.").

I thought it possible that those who voted in-person might have a different response than those who voted by mail. If you were filling out a ballot at home, you might be more likely to research questions. It would be like a take-home or open-book test.

But this does not seemed to be the case.

But what I noticed is the roll off for questioned ballots was extreme. Swarms were not getting past President, and most weren't voting for the legislature let alone the questions.

CUCUKLILLRUUNGA!

(This is Yup'k for "I voted")

Those numbers were estimates, based on the number of absentees accepted in the semi-daily report, and the number of times counted in the results. So there was room for error, especially since the reports were run at slightly different times.

The Alaska Division of Elections put out a formal list of what’s been counted and what’s still out last night:
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/20GENR/data/sovc/unofficialballotcountstats.pdf

[cinyc]

The Alaska Division of Elections put out a formal list of what’s been counted and what’s still out last night:
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/20GENR/data/sovc/unofficialballotcountstats.pdf

Thanks!

Looking at the 16 Anchorage districts (HD-13 to HD-28), if the remaining absentee votes have the same distribution as those counted, that would add +2962 to the margin, increasing it from 0.36% to 0.94%. But I did not account for the undervote. Let's say 5%, which reduce the gain to about 2800, and the new margin to 0.88% (this again is just for Anchorage).

It appears that about 13% to 22% of the absentee mail ballots have not been counted. Since you said they were taking into account the date of arrival, this might be those that arrived on or after election day, or at least October 31. These may be more Republican/No than the earlier arrivals, just like is happening in California. Because of the liberal return deadline in Alaska, voters might think nothing of putting their ballot in the mail on election day or perhaps on Monday. They will have no concern that it might take 5 days to go across Anchorage.

The lowest share of uncounted mail ballots is 13% in HD-28 in the southern Anchorage including some quite rural areas. There may be some areas without home mail delivery. If you have a mailbox on the side of the road, are you going to stick anything of value like a ballot in it? By now you may have pulled it out of the ground, and transferred all important mail to to a postal box.

Other than HD-28, the districts with the highest shares of uncounted absentees ae HD-13, 14, and 15 which gives a possibility that these late arrivals are more Republican/No.

But they would have to maybe 14% more No to wipe out the net positive Yes for the last uncounted Anchorage mail ballots. This seems like a stretch.

While I was writing this, the mid-day Saturday dump completed the results from the Juneau regional center. I'll see if I can differentiate (I had only save an overall percentage, so there is going to be some rounding problems).

Based on the final results from Juneau we can calculate the Yes percentage from the mail  ballots counted on Saturday, compared to that for mail ballots counted previously, and all non-mail ballots (election day, early voting*, and questioned ballots).

I calculated this based on the overall Yes % before Saturday, and the number of mail ballots added Saturday. All calculations are based on the results on the question, and totally exclude any undervotes - effectively, they just never happened. Thus my calculations will differ slightly from if I had recorded the number of Yes and No votes by mail prior to Saturday, but it algebraically correct:

HD	New Mail	Prev Mail	Non-Mail
29	42.8%	49.9%	29.7%
30	41.7%	46.3%	30.0%
31	57.6%	58.6%	35.6%
32	59.6%	66.8%	51.5%
33	70.0%	79.0%	64.3%
34	61.4%	71.3%	53.5%
35	52.6%	67.1%	49.2%
36	64.7%	61.3%	45.4%

The newly counted (later arriving) mail ballots were 5% to 15% less Yes than the earlier-arriving mail ballots. This pattern holds whether the Yes support was high (HD-33 or HD-34), or low (HD-29, 39, and 31).

The exceptions to this are HD-31 and HD-36, but it appears that after finishing the earlier mail ballots on Friday they continued counting the later arriving ballots, leaving only a smidgen to be finished on Saturday. Since they finished counting in mid-day it is possible that signatures had already been validated, and they only had to run the ballots through scanners (for all the Juneau HD),

If we assume that the later arriving Anchorage mail ballots are 7.5% less Yes than the earlier arriving mail ballots (+15% reduction in the margin), then that would reduce the added margin in Anchorage from 2800 to 1300.

*The early voting from the two Juneau districts (HD-33 and HD-34) was huge because it was convenient to get to the regional offices, so a large share of the non-mail ballots in these districts was like the mail ballots prior to election day.

33 and 34 always lead the early voting. 33 includes some towns nowhere near Juneau in addition to Downtown Juneau. The early votes likely come from heavily R downtown Juneau, not those villages, which are more likely to vote absentee, in person or otherwise.

Your analysis is missing the heavily D, rural AK HDs 37-39, which have a lot of ballots out that likely skew Yes.

[cinyc]

I haven't yet looked at the Sunday results. Given that they were only modestly favorable, and were released mid-day, I'm assuming they are either from Fairbanks and/or Mat-Su.

No. They were from Anchorage. Yes gained about 1,000 votes out of 7.6K, and is now up by 2,580 votes.

It's over. The bush HDs will put it even more up than it already is.

[cinyc]

Your analysis is missing the heavily D, rural AK HDs 37-39, which have a lot of ballots out that likely skew Yes.

The mid-day Sunday results are from Anchorage, but they didn't update the district tables, I had to go hunting through the "precinct results".

BTW, any idea why there are two sets of absentee results for HD-6 and HD-9?

I think they're counted or at least collected by different offices - Faribanks vs Nome for 6 and Mat-Su vs Fairbanks for 9. There also are double entries for other HDs in the precinct text files, too, likely for the same reason. That messed up my results spreadsheet, since they changed it on the fly out of the blue in one update. I think it also messed up the NYT and CNN's results, too, at one point. They caught it way after I did.

[cinyc]

I haven't yet looked at the Sunday results. Given that they were only modestly favorable, and were released mid-day, I'm assuming they are either from Fairbanks and/or Mat-Su.

No. They were from Anchorage. Yes gained about 1,000 votes out of 7.6K, and is now up by 2,580 votes.

It's over. The bush HDs will put it even more up than it already is.

I'm sure it will pass, but it will be interesting to see the margin. It still isn't to 1%.

The new Anchorage mail ballots are about 5% less Yes than earlier ballots. They also aren't finishing up all the ballots.

HD-38 and HD-39  were not particularly rich sources of Yes votes. The mail votes were just a bit more Yes than election day, and there weren't that many mail votes.

In a bush village, mail might not be all that convenient. How often does a plane get in and out with mail?

The mail ballots in a bush village are more likely in-person absentees than true mail absentee ballots. Those get classified as absentees, not early votes, under Alaska’s strange election system.

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

Alaska’s federal overseas ballots are in fake HD 99. I don’t think they can vote on state races.

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

Alaska’s federal overseas ballots are in fake HD 99. I don’t think they can vote on state races.

There is a legal distinction between people who have moved overseas permanently (or do not have a definite intent to return to the US). But intent can not be objectively determined, even by an individual themselves.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/overseaspermanentvoters.php

In any case, Congress has determined such citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections based on their last US domicile. But Alaska doesn't have to let them vote in state and local elections - they may in fact believe that if they ever do return to the US it will not be in Alaska. These persons get federal ballots (District 99) and only include three federal races.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/SampleBallot_2020_GEN.php

But voters who are temporarily overseas are treated the same as if they were in the US (their domicile has not changed). But the federal government has provided additional requirements such as ballots being mailed 45 days before an election to ensure time for the ballot to travel overseas and back. In general, voted ballots must have a wet signature, and thus can not be faxed or e-mailed, though the unmarked ballot might be (In Texas, voted ballots can be voted by e-mail if used from a .mil address. This might require assent to non-confidentiality. It gets really messy. Counties with lots of military voters (Bexar, Bell, and El Paso) have experimented with special servers that can anonymize and receive ballots - these require a special app that produces an encrypted file, which can be sent back. At other times, overseas voters have been expected to construct an envelope when they received a faxed ballot. The envelope had to be folded and taped together.

In addition, they can send in write-in ballots, which may require writing-in not only candidates but offices as well.

For HD-1 the last batch included 178 presidential votes, 99 senatorial votes, 101 congressional votes, and 89 question two votes. These were not all federal write-in ballots but many were. The write-in ballots might have been set aside to make sure that a regular mail ballot was not also received.

The reason that HD-6 and HD-9, 32, 37, 39, and 40 results were split is because those districts are divided between judicial districts, and have different ballot styles based on judicial races. See sample ballots above. Alaska has relatively few ballot styles because it US representative is elected at large, and house districts nest into senate district. If it weren't for the judicial districts, 41 ballot styles would be needed.

The judicial districts are long established - at one time census results were tabulated by judicial district. They also tend to be more or less permanent, it is messy for venue to change during multi-year litigation. They probably try to avoid have too many house districts crossing judicial districts, but that may hard to accomplish, particularly if keeping bush districts from going into cities.

FWIW - this is the first time I've ever seen the HDs split in the txt results file. It will be interesting to see if they're still separated when the results go official.