cinyc
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« on: October 05, 2016, 08:37:16 PM » |
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« edited: October 05, 2016, 08:39:42 PM by cinyc »
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Cook PVI is calculated using the 2-party percentage, not the overall percentage. It is also an average of the last two cycles. I think NM In the 2012 cycle (i.e. the difference for just 2012, not 2008+2012) was D+3.33. Under your hypothetical, the 2016 cycle would be D+2.43. (51/(51+45)=.5313; 50/(50+40)=.5556; .5556-.5313=.0243). Averaging the two would come up with a hypothetical 2018 National PVI of D+2.88. Cook would round that up to D+3, which is pretty much what ExtremeRepublican said.
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