NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[cinyc]

Updated dashboard:




Sam may have been a little conservative.

I have Republicans with leads in Net 60 right now.

[cinyc]

Adler loses NJ-03; Fake Tea Party candidate deeply saddened.

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Any news on McCarthy-04 in NY? Can someone give me a link to AP results, thanks!

McCarthy is supposedly losing by 16 , but with very few votes in (10% of precincts, allegedly).

[cinyc]

Nassau BoE, which is ahead of the AP, has McCarthy up by 1 with 20% in:
http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

[cinyc]

Montco, probably.  

But Toomey should easily have it.  Part of Lancaster's still out, too.

[cinyc]

Updated Dashboard:




Very colorful.  The AP tally of NY-04 is behind; Dem is up now.  Otherwise, everything pretty much falls in line.

[cinyc]

Toomey 51, Sestak 49.  There is still a third of Lancaster county outstanding. 

Which means it can only get better.  Time to call it.

[cinyc]

My guess is Murray will win.  She's narrowly up in all 4 bellwethers.  (Whatcom, Snohomish, Pacific, Gray's Harbor).

[cinyc]

Fox News Calls PA for Toomey.  Finally.

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Ben Quayle is up by 12 in AZ-03 with 56% in.  So much for that one flipping.

[cinyc]

The Times appears to have called NY-19 and NY-20.  Glad to see some recovery here despite the mess that was Paladino.

Grimm (R) was up by 3.5 in NY-13 with about 75% in.  Last I checked, a little more was out from Brooklyn than Staten Island.  Thus far, he's winning SI by 5, losing Brooklyn by 4.

[cinyc]

Surprisingly, Bill Owens is holding on in NY-23.

The curse of Doug Hoffman!

Yep.  Essex is the only county out.  Owens will almost certainly hold on - he won it in the special election.

[cinyc]

I'm slightly disappointed GOP again hasn't done sh*t in New England except New Hampshire.

Foley in Connecticut?

I thought Fox projected Malloy the winner despite Foley's lead.  Did I mishear?

[cinyc]

US SENATOR       
      Total
Number of Precincts       438    
Precincts Reporting       121    27.6 %
Times Counted       69402/494876    14.0 %
Total Votes       68822    
Carter, Tim    NA    251    0.36%
Gianoutsos, Ted    NA    120    0.17%
Haase, Fredrick    LIB    381    0.55%
McAdams, Scott T.    DEM    17424    25.32%
Miller, Joe    REP    23504    34.15%
Write-in Votes      27142    39.44%

Based on where these votes are coming from, Murkowski has a very good shot at pulling this off.

[cinyc]

What we learned about New England Polling:

Critical Insights really sucks.  Merriman sucks.  The Rhode Island pollsters aren't that bad.

[cinyc]

One last post of the dashboard now that we have results in all 139 races:




A little conservative, Sam - but not bad.

I have it as Republicans leading in 68, losing in 3 Dem targets, for R+65 (but CT-04 will likely flip, lowering it to R+64).  In the called races, it's R+50.  In those 100% in, it's R+23.

If I've done the math right, the average PVI of the seats Republcians lead  is R+4.7.  The least Republican is D+5 - but that might be CT-04.

[cinyc]

What we learned about New England Polling:

Critical Insights really sucks.  Merriman sucks.  The Rhode Island pollsters aren't that bad.

We Ask America got lucky?

I think I might have read somewhere that We Ask America's polls were done by Voter/Consumer Research, Mitt Romney's internal pollster- though it might have been bottom-of-the-barrel push pollster ccAdvertising.

[cinyc]

MSNBC rolled out the B team. It's like amateur hour over there now.

Fox News did too - but Michael Barone is now on the B team for some bizarre reason.

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Great work Lief. Thanks for setting me straight. Not that I consider all on your list remotely blue dogs, but they are not in the forefront of the "yes we can" agenda either.

Plus 65 seats eh, Cinyc? What was my predicted number again?    By the way, it is 64, with probably 3 or 4 on either side of that. The Pubbie is not going to win CT-4. Look at what's out.

Sure, I got about 15 seats wrong, but they went both ways. Sometimes statistics works in your favor. And I suspect the generic number I used to generate the number was pretty close too.

Yes, Torie - it looks like you'll be right on the money.  The Republican isn't going to win CT-04 - the New York Times called it for Himes.

[cinyc]

Thanks cinyc.  For the House, everything turned out quite well with the rankings.  Like the dashboard too.

The only thing that sticks out as out of place is OR-05 - but that's largely SUSA's fault.

And on the other side, NY-13 and maybe IL-08, depending on the final result there.  But otherwise, an excellent job ranking the races.

[cinyc]

All right, what's going on with MN-08?  Who is likely to win at this point?

Depends on what's out from St. Louis and Itasca Counties, but Craavack just might pull it out - something I didn't expect when I looked at the race a half hour ago.

Out:
Aitkin - 13 precincts; 50-44 Craavack
Isanti - 6 precincts; 55-39 Craavack
Itasca - 14 precincts; 48-47 Oberstar
Mille Lacs - 1 precinct; 53-40 Craavack
Pine - 18 precincts; 51-44 Craavack
St. Louis - 5 precincts; 58-40 Oberstar
Wadena - 9 precincts; 54-40 Craavack

[cinyc]

Sadly, it looks like Alaska will remain a GOP hold no matter who wins.

If Alaskans know how to spell, it will almost certainly be Murkowski.

[cinyc]

Buck +6,932 (+0.4%) with 73% reporting

But, Denver only 54% reporting and Boulder only 63% reporting.

Buck is behind in all PVI bellwether counties, which is never a good sign.  Ditto Rossi in Washington.  I generally trust the bellwethers.

[cinyc]

Himes is finally leading in CT-04.

Torie - Care to guess the net number of seats Republicans lead in right now?

[cinyc]

Himes is finally leading in CT-04.

Torie - Care to guess the net number of seats Republicans lead in right now?

I am overwhelmed. So no.   Any seat that you want me to look at?

The question was rhetorical.

64.