HI-1 special election results

[cinyc]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

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http://www.starbulletin.com/news/20100520_vote_counting_begins_as_candidates_make_final_pleas.html

[cinyc]

The inevitable AP results site.

I won't be staying up to watch the results, though. Have fun, left coasters.

I think the results are going to come in fairly quickly.  They started counting earlier in the week.  We might know who won by midnight or so Eastern time.

[cinyc]

Looks like a late night tonight...

Doubtful.  Most of the votes have been in for weeks and Hawaii has been counting the votes this week.  The Hawaii elections page promises results at 6PM HST (12 Midnight Eastern Daylight Time).

http://hawaii.gov/elections

The Hawaii election page is excellent, by the way - providing precinct-level results way back.  It's almost on par with Louisiana's, which I think is the gold standard in elections pages (even providing maps).

[cinyc]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

Already 159,000

163,000 - and still trickling in.  That's about the same number of votes as were cast in the 2006 off-year HI-1 election (162,794).

[cinyc]

That was fast - Djou with 39.5% of the vote:

Printed on: 05/22/2010 at 05:12:52 pm
U.S. REP DISTRICT I SPECIAL VACANCY ELECTION - State of Hawaii - Statewide
May 22, 2010
**NUMBER 1**
SUMMARY REPORT
Page 1
Congressional District I
98 of 98
(R) DJOU, Charles 67,274 39.5%
(D) HANABUSA, Colleen 52,445 30.8%
(D) CASE, Ed 47,012 27.6%
(D) DEL CASTILLO, Rafael (Del) 654 0.4%
(N) STRODE, Kalaeloa 489 0.3%
(N) BREWER, Jim 269 0.2%
(D) LEE, Philmund (Phil) 254 0.1%
(R) COLLINS, Charles (Googie) 192 0.1%
(R) AMSTERDAM, C. Kaui Jochanan 169 0.1%
(D) BROWNE, Vinny 149 0.1%
(N) TATAII, Steve 123 0.1%
(R) CRUM, Douglas 107 0.1%
(R) GIUFFRE, John (Raghu) 82 0.0%
(N) MOSELEY, Karl F. 79 0.0%
Blank Votes: 134
Over Votes: 880 0.5%
0.1%
REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT
****************************************
****************************************
SPECIAL
TOTAL REGISTRATION
TOTAL TURNOUT
ABSENTEE TURNOUT
317,337
52.9%
0.7%
PRECINCT TURNOUT
170,312 53.7%
168,010
2,302
OVERSEAS TURNOUT
****************************************
****************************************
OVERSEAS BALLOTS CAST
1ST CONGRESSIONAL
2ND CONGRESSIONAL
285
0
285 0.0%
(C) - CONSTITUTION (D) = DEMOCRAT (G) = GREEN (I) - INDEPENDENT (L) = LIBERTARIAN (N) = NONPARTISAN (R) - REPUBLICAN

[cinyc]

Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.

There could be a few late straggler walk-in absentees in between 5:12:52pm and 6:00pm.  But that should be all she wrote.

Turnout exceeded the 2006 off-year election.

[cinyc]

Djou is giving his victory speech.

[cinyc]

Djou is giving his victory speech.

Link?

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

They're talking to Case, now.

And now Hanabusa.  She's happy to end up second.

[cinyc]

There are about 1000 votes cast today that are not in the count.

[cinyc]

This Ramsay Wharton character seems credible... http://www.ramsay2010.com/

She just got a lot of press in Hawaii for that interview...

She was the press until a while ago - another TV reporter come Republican candidate (as in CT-2 - though Peckinpaugh  didn't get the party endorsement and will need to win the primary).

Having listened to Djou, he will not be a pushover.

Yeah, he's pretty telegenic and enthusiastic.  Plus, the Hawaii Dems are fractured.  There's no guarantee Case's supporters will vote for Hanabusa in the general or vice versa.  But Djou is still the underdog in the general.

[cinyc]

It seems that the last time a Republican won a special election to Congress was before the light bulb was invented. When was it? Oh well, the GOP looks set to win a couple now, certainly the Deal seat, where the final is between two Republicans I think.

I would also bet money that the GOP wins IN-03 special election and that Tom Reed wins not only the NY-29 general election for the term in the 112th congress but also the special election for the remainder of the 111th congress.

A Republican will win the GA-9 runoff on June 8.  That's 100% assured, since both candidates in the runoff are Republicans.

[cinyc]

FYI-

This is one special election where I've begun to compile the data to do a more sophisticated analysis.  We're going to have to wait until Hawaii releases precinct-level data (which I suspect will be by Absentee Ballot districts, not actual precincts) before I can try to pinpoint any trends.  But at some point, I suspect I will be able to do so.  Stay tuned.

[cinyc]

I have eyeballed the precinct results and the precinct map.

First, there is not a huge variation among precincts. This is not a situation with highly polarized voting patterns.

Second, unsurprisingly, Djou ran strongest, sometimes breaking 50%, in the higher income, Anglo precincts from from Waikiki and Diamond Head going east along the coast in the southeast part of the island, i.e., the tourist and retiree zone. In those precincts, Case came in second, and in a few cases, Hanabusa was rather far behind in third, although sometimes closer to Case's second place position. He also carried heavily what I suspect are the military officer areas near the coast  west of Pearl Harbor, and on the military base itself.

Case won only around the university, inland a bit from Waikiki, with Djou coming in second. A bit farther to the east of the university, in the four precincts numbered 25 and one of the number 26 precincts, Case came in second to Djou. Elsewhere, other than the Anglo, and retiree zone noted above, he came in third almost invariably.

Hanabusa won, generally with small margins, with Djou coming in a close second, and Case a bit behind Djou in third, in what I suspect are the most heavily Asian zones (mostly Japanese?) inland from downtown,  on the east side of Pearl Harbor, and in a few precincts  up in the hills from Pearl Harbor, where sometimes Djou was in first, sometimes Hanabusa, but with small margins.

Everywhere else, in the high rise district east of Waikiki, in inland areas, except near downtown, and just to the east of Pearl Harbor, and a few odd precincts in the far northwest part of the district), Djou won over Hanabusa, who was in second, by small margins.

So, if Hanabusa wins the nomination for the General, one would assume that she would pick up the Case university vote. The issue then becomes what happens to the Case voters elsewhere, in the Anglo and retiree zone east of Waikiki and Diamond Head, and in the rest of the Congressional district, where he almost invariably came in third.

Djou won the precinct that McCain carried at Hickam AFB (32-03), but he didn't break 50% - it wasn't even his best showing.  Case got clobbered there.

[cinyc]

FWIW, apparently final results from AP:

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General                96 of 96 Precincts Reporting - 100%                   Name   Party   Votes   Vote %       Djou, Charles   GOP   67,610   39.68       Hanabusa, Colleen   Dem   52,802   30.99       Case, Ed   Dem   47,391   27.81       Del Castillo, Rafael   Dem   664   0.39       Strode, Kalaeloa   NP   491   0.29       Brewer, Jim   NP   273   0.16       Lee, Philmund   Dem   254   0.15       Collins, Charles   GOP   194   0.11       Amsterdam, C. Kaui   GOP   170   0.10       Browne, Vinny   Dem   150   0.09       Tataii, Steve   NP   125   0.06       Crum, Douglas   GOP   107   0.06       Giuffre, John   GOP   82   0.06       Moseley, Karl   NP   80   0.05       Total Votes Cast      170,393   100.00

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/HI_US_House_0522.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

The difference between the AP and State of Hawaii's percentages is that the AP doesn't count blanks and overvotes toward the total, which the State of Hawaii does.

[cinyc]

Republicans for some reason have a hard time in Special elections. You would think they would be able to take great advantage of the low turnout but I guess not. Republicans also start strong and get weak towards the end. Tedesco and Scozzafava/Hoffman led in polls some by double digits towards the beginning. Brian Bilbray and Jean Schmidt started strong and then both narrowly won. Rob Whitman and Bob Latta also lost ground somewhat before winning. So the events in the recent special elections are really nothing new.

This was not a low turnout special election.  Turnout was better than the 2006 midyear election.

[cinyc]

I don't think district residency matters much in Hawaii. Patsy Mink had no problem representing each of Hawaii's districts, and Mazie Hirono lives in HI-01.

Yeah yeah, but maybe it's symbolic of what a successful candidate's biography entails.  Running a localized campaign is almost always superior.  Djou, Scott Brown, Owens, Murphy, Critz, etc., all beat down opponents who tried to nationalize the election.

Well, when all the candidates come from the same small island of Oahu, does it really matter if they live just outside the district's boundaries?  Is there that much of a difference between living in Mi'ilani Town or Wahiawa?   You're talking about an island that's about 30 miles wide and 30 miles long here.

I could see an issue if someone from the fairly rural island of Hawaii wanted to represent CD-1 (Urban/Suburban Oahu), but someone from slightly less urban suburban Oahu representing CD-1 or slightly more urban suburban Oahu representing CD-2 ought not to matter much in the grand scheme of things.  Especially when both districts are in the same (and only) TV market.