California trending R?

[Jamison5]

The polls by SurveyUSA in the past few months and also the CNN poll from this month seem to show California being a bit closer than last time, even considering that the polls overestimated Trump by almost 8 points in 2016 (probably because of illegal votes). The SurveyUSA national polls are to the left of the average while they show California going D by only ~15-25 points (Hillary won by 30). This could make the an electoral/popular split less likely and could affect the competetive House races there, like CA-48.

Are these polls too early or could they be a sign of a trend?

[Jamison5]

Given how badly the GOP performed in 2016, trending R means nothing lol as it just means they have already hit rock bottom and have no where to go but back up

I agree with that, but a trend is a trend. Do you think it's possible to take back a couple House seats in California if these polls are accurate? Maybe CA-10 or CA-48?

[Jamison5]

Considering what happened with the House seats in 2018 I would say it probably isn't trending R in any meaningful way.

2018 was the first blue wave since 2008, those kinds of results are to be expected in such an election.

[Jamison5]

CA polls tend to underestimate democrats, often significantly. Case in point--

I said in the first post that the polls in CA underestimate Democrats. My point was that the polls underestimated the Democrats by 8 points and the new polls are showing a 10-15 point difference from 2016. This means about a 5 point shift when the polling average is adjusted.