Schwartz's, Murphy's and Matthew's worst nightmare - Wagner may run.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

Very interesting development. Would Specter be able to beat Wagner? It would seem with the shift in the Philly suburbs it would not be possible for him to win by enough there to compete with the Western avalanche toward Wagner. Specter in my estimates would need the west in order to win with the current PA political climate. The days of moderate Reps winning off of the SE alone are over.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

Very interesting development. Would Specter be able to beat Wagner? It would seem with the shift in the Philly suburbs it would not be possible for him to win by enough there to compete with the Western avalanche toward Wagner. Specter in my estimates would need the west in order to win with the current PA political climate. The days of moderate Reps winning off of the SE alone are over.

It would be a very tough race. Wagner is Pro Life (and generally socially conservative) and a westerner. That would be a serious problem for Specter since those issues are important to two groups of voters that have never been too fond of Arlen.

If Specter is relying mostly on the west in any race and especially against Wagner, he's basically finished.

Doesn't he basically have to rely on the west? Even if he wins the SE it won't be by a wide margin like it was for him in the 80's or 90's but instead a few points. So he would need to at very least tie out west and I don;t see him doing that against a pro-life Democrat and a westerner at that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Doesn't he basically have to rely on the west? Even if he wins the SE it won't be by a wide margin like it was for him in the 80's or 90's but instead a few points. So he would need to at very least tie out west and I don;t see him doing that against a pro-life Democrat and a westerner at that.

I guess it depends on what we are defining as "relying" on the west. If an election is that close and the west is what Specter is looking to to save him, he's done.

what I am putting forward is the worst case scenario for the PA GOP. In which an eastern moderate Rep faces a Western Moderate Dem and the former is unable to win in the west b/c of the latters presence. The former faces a problem in that his margin will be lower then previous years in his base due to political shifts of that area. Lets say Specter won the SE by 5% how much would he need in the west to put him over the top? Can he get that with Wagner running against him.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Good point about the Pro-choice groups. We really don;'t now what they will do if the Dem is a social Conservative. They supported Casey primarily b/c they hated Ricky's guts. They might just support Specter if Wagner is the nominee. We will definately have to watch and wait. Definate going to be a lot of fun in PA in 2010.